Colorado vs. UCF score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Colorado vs. UCF in this Week 5 college football game.

Colorado vs. UCF score prediction / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Big 12 rivals take the field in the Sunshine State this weekend in a battle of conference foes each with a win in league play so far and searching for a second as Colorado faces UCF in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Colorado is on a 2-game win streak since the loss to Nebraska, getting past Colorado State and Baylor, with another strong passing effort that ranks 5th nationally with Shedeur Sanders at the helm, but is still looking for the answer on the ground, ranking 130th among 134 FBS teams with just under 69 rushing yards per game.

UCF is the mirror opposite of the Buffaloes on offense, rushing for 376 yards per game on average, ranking 1st nationally in that category, but is 95th in FBS throwing the ball. It’s still enough for the Knights to rank 14th in the country in scoring offense, with nearly 46 points per game.

What can we expect from the Big 12 matchup this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and UCF compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Colorado vs. UCF score prediction

The simulations currently favor the home team to hold serve against the Buffaloes as a favorite.

SP+ predicts that UCF will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 36 to 24 and to win the game by an expected 12.3 points.

The model gives the Knights a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Buffs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Who is favored?

That honor goes to UCF, which is a 14.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for UCF at -550 and for Colorado at +400 to win outright.

And the book set the total for the game at 62.5 points.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Colorado +14.5
• UCF to win -550
• Bet under 62.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Knights to take down the Buffaloes this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

UCF is projected to win the game in the majority 82 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 18 percent of sims.

UCF is projected to be 9 points better than Colorado on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

And the Knights currently lead the Big 12 with a 34.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Colorado a 2 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 6.2 games.

How to watch Colorado vs. UCF

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 1:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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