Colorado vs. Utah football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Colorado vs. Utah in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Colorado vs. Utah football prediction / Stephen Garcia/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big 12 football kicks off this weekend as No. 17 Colorado welcomes Utah on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Colorado sits in second place in the Big 12 standings at 5-1 in conference play and in position to strike for the league championship in Coach Prime’s second year.

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 title, but slid to just 1-5 in conference games and ranks 108th nationally in scoring after another injury to quarterback Cameron Rising.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Colorado vs. Utah predictions

As expected, the computers are siding strongly with the Buffaloes against the Utes.

Colorado has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 75 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25 percent of sims.

In total, the Buffaloes came out on top in 15,000 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Utes edged out Colorado in the other 5,000 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 9.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buffaloes to cover the spread against the Utes.

That’s because Colorado is an 11.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -430 and for Utah at +330 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bettors expect the Buffaloes to handle the Utes this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Utah will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the final margin under a dozen points in a loss.

Colorado vs. Utah future projections

Colorado is second among Big 12 teams with a 24.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Buffaloes will win 9.4 games this season.

Utah hasn’t factored in the playoff conversation for quite a while, but there’s still a chance it can make a bowl game this postseason.

The index gives the Utes a win total projection of 5 games and a 24.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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How to watch Utah vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 10 a.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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