Colorado vs. Utah prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Colorado and Utah face off in this Big 12 clash, with our updated prediction for the Week 12 game.

Colorado vs. Utah Prediction / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Saturday finds Big 12 rivals facing off with plenty on the line as No. 17 Colorado welcomes Utah. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Back in the preseason, it was supposed to be Utah out in front and Colorado languishing near the bottom of the Big 12, if you went by the media’s rankings this summer.

But it’s Coach Prime and his Buffaloes who sit in second-place in the Big 12 standings with a clear path to the league title game, and Utah sitting at 1-5 in conference play and two games out from even reaching bowl eligibility looking to play upset agent.

What can we expect as the Buffs and Utes face off in this Big 12 clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Colorado and Utah meet in this Week 12 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Colorado vs. Utah prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Once a team weakness, Colorado looks superb in the defensive front seven, leading the Big 12 with 29 sacks and is top 25 nationally with 7.11 tackles for loss per game and racking up 64 negative plays altogether.

Utah is a veteran group on the offensive line, but has struggled to ward off opposing rushers, ranking 62nd in FBS and 11th in the Big 12 by allowing 17 sacks this year and nearly 2 per game on average and surrendering nearly 6 negative plays each time out and is 82nd in tackles for loss allowed.

2. Utah’s defense. Despite the team’s struggles this year, it still plays some mean defense, ranking first in the Big 12 in total defensive output and scoring and is great at limiting big plays from opponents and surrendering under 50 percent completion from quarterbacks.

3. Colorado’s offense. Shedeur Sanders leads another stellar Buffs attack, ranking first in the Big 12 and 8th in FBS with over 320 passing yards per game and his overall efficiency has only improved as the year wears on, thanks in part to some greatly improved blocking up front.

Utah is only getting 1.78 sacks per game this year, and while sacks don’t tell the whole story, that number does illustrate a relative inability to generate enough pressure on the quarterback.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Buffaloes over the Utes this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado comes out ahead in the majority 74.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 25.2 percent of sims forecast the Utes will win in an upset.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 9.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Colorado vs. Utah prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Colorado is an 11.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Colorado at -430 and for Utah at +330 to win outright.

Colorado vs. Utah prediction: Who wins?

Utah has the horses to keep this a close game by hogging the football away from the Buffaloes’ dynamic passing attack. Despite its subpar attack generally, it can run the ball with lead back Micah Bernard and get the better of a Colorado run stop that can still be exploited.

And the Utes also remain a credible obstacle to Sanders and the Buffaloes’ receivers, coming into the game ranked No. 8 nationally in opposing passer rating this season.

Still, Colorado’s defense has improved in just about all phases and shouldn’t have much trouble grounding Utah’s dismal passing attack while Sanders and his targets pull away late.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Colorado wins 27-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Colorado vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Utah vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 10 a.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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