Colorado vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Colorado vs. Utah in this Week 12 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado vs. Utah score prediction 2024 / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A pair of Big 12 teams that have diverged from their preseason expectations meet up as No. 17 Colorado plays host to Utah on Saturday. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado was picked to finish No. 11 in the Big 12 standings back during the preseason, but has moved into second-place in the conference with a 5-1 league record and controlling its destiny in the championship picture, and thus the College Football Playoff race.

Utah was the preseason Big 12 title favorite, but slid to 1-5 in conference play and ranking 108th among 134 FBS teams in scoring production, with 22 points per game.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Buffaloes and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and Utah compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Colorado vs. Utah score prediction

The models are siding with the Buffaloes over the Utes, but by a very slim margin in this game.

SP+ predicts Colorado will defeat Utah by a projected score of 26 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Buffaloes a 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Colorado vs. Utah odds, how to pick the game

Colorado is an 11.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -450 and for Utah at +340 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Utah +11.5
• Colorado to win -450
• Bet over 46.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors, who expect the Buffaloes will dominate the Utes by double digits, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Utah will either take out the Buffs in an upset, or keep the final margin under a dozen points in a loss.

Colorado vs. Utah splits

Colorado is top 25 nationally by averaging out 10.5 points better than its opponents this season when adding up the points in the wins and losses.

Utah is 1 of 3 teams in FBS that comes in with a perfect 0.0 point margin in its games in 2024.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games of the season.

Colorado has been 17.3 points better than the competition in that span, while Utah has been 3.3 points worse than opponents over that time.

Things even out a little more depending on the venue.

Utah has been 2.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road, while Colorado has been 5 points better on average than the other team when at home.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Utes in this Big 12 clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 75 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 9.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Colorado vs. Utah prediction: What the analytics say

Colorado vs. Utah future projections

Colorado is second among Big 12 teams with a 24.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Buffaloes will win 9.4 games this season.

Utah hasn’t factored in the playoff conversation for quite a while, but there’s still a chance it can make a bowl game this postseason.

The index gives the Utes a win total projection of 5 games and a 24.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch Utah vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 10 a.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks