ESPN computer predicts college football national champion for 2024

Checking in with the latest analytics to predict college football's historic 2024 national title race.

A preview of what college football teams have the best chance to win the national title in 2024, based on ESPN's computer prediction model. / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

College football’s first-ever 12-team playoff begins this week, kicking off a historic national championship run to cap off the 2024 season, with several teams in contention for the title.

The one thing we do know: We’ll have a new national champion this year, after defending champ Michigan failed to qualify for the top dozen.

What can we make of the national championship race right now?

For that, let’s turn to ESPN’s College Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Predicting college football’s 2024 national champion

Ranked from worst to first

12. Clemson

Title chance: 1.5 percent

The models give ACC champion Clemson the hardest path of any team in this year’s playoff, starting out with its road trip against SEC runner-up Texas in the first round.

This offense is playing confidently with Cade Klubnik at the helm and the Tigers field another talented defensive front, but the Longhorns are a tough out on the road.

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11. Arizona State

Title chance: 1.8 percent

Winning the Big 12 championship in dominant fashion, combined with some losses around the country, allowed the Sun Devils to take the first round off this year.

That should give star tailback Cam Skattebo some extra time to rest up and carry this offense in its first game against the winner of the Clemson vs. Texas matchup.

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10. Boise State

Title chance: 1.9 percent

The clear selection from the Group of Five ranks this season, the Broncos won the Mountain West championship and also secured a first-round bye in the playoff.

Now it’s up to Ashton Jeanty, the close second-place finisher in the Heisman Trophy voting this year, to prepare Boise State for the winner of SMU vs. Penn State.

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9. SMU

Title chance: 2.4 percent

While the Mustangs didn’t win the ACC title, they still boast one of college football’s most potent offenses with quarterback Kevin Jennings and tailback Barshard Smith leading the way.

But first they have to contend with a confident Penn State team on the road in one of the country’s most raucous home field environments.

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8. Indiana

Title chance: 2.9 percent

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers shocked college football this year playing some of the sport’s most dynamic offense, ranking second nationally with over 43 points per game.

They’re not too bad on defense, either, ranking 6th in FBS by allowing just 15 points on average, although they’ll be tested by Notre Dame’s expert offensive weapons.

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7. Tennessee

Title chance: 3.6 percent

While the models aren’t high on the Vols’ chances, they should drastically improve if they can upset Ohio State on the road in the first round playoff matchup.

Tennessee plays some of the country’s most dominant defense, and is ninth among 134 FBS teams in rushing output, averaging 232 yards on the ground per game.

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6. Penn State

Title chance: 8.6 percent

Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions’ dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield together comprise one of the country’s more promising offensive combinations.

That, in addition to a stout scrimmage defense, could be what Penn State needs to make a little run, but they’ll be challenged by a speedy SMU team at home in the first round.

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5. Oregon

Title chance: 9.8 percent

Something of a surprise in these predictions given how well the Ducks have played, finishing as the only undefeated team in the FBS ranks in the 2024 season.

Dillon Gabriel was a Heisman finalist and finished this year as the NCAA’s leader in several passing categories all-time, and is working with some stealthy receivers in the 8th ranked scoring offense.

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4. Ohio State

Title chance: 11.8 percent

It’s up to Ryan Day to get his team over the hump of losing, again, to rival Michigan, a game that cost the Buckeyes a chance at playing for the Big Ten championship this season.

And now they draw arguably the most difficult first round game of any team in the playoff, against SEC challenger Tennessee, although with the luxury of playing at home.

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3. Georgia

Title chance: 15.8 percent

This year’s SEC champions have won two of the last three national championships, but their bid for a third in four years took a hit along with their quarterback.

Carson Beck absorbed a tough hit against his throwing arm the last time out, raising legitimate questions as to whether he’ll be able to take the field in the playoff.

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2. Notre Dame

Title chance: 15.9 percent

A vote of confidence for the Fighting Irish, who were thought to be out of the mix entirely after a shocking loss at home to Northern Illinois back in September.

But since then, the Golden Domers have won 10 straight games, and in dominant fashion as they lead college football in point differential, to earn a first-round game at home against Indiana.

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1. Texas

Title chance: 24 percent

While the Longhorns missed out on getting the first-round bye after losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, they still got home field advantage to start out against Clemson.

And while Texas is playing some of the sport’s most productive defense all over the field, there are some lingering questions around the consistency of this offense.

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