Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

What to watch for as the Florida Gators welcome the Texas A&M Aggies in this Week 3 college football game with our updated prediction.

Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The Swamp plays host to an important SEC matchup between two head coaches under some early pressure as the Florida Gators welcome the Texas A&M Aggies in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday.

Both teams are sitting at 1-1 overall heading into their respective SEC openers and each looking to recover from Week 1 losses at home against ranked opposition, and hoping Saturday’s game offers them a path to a sort of temporary redemption.

Mike Elko made his debut in a loss to Notre Dame that saw the Aggies’ passing attack struggle in a result that looks even more suspect now after the Irish lost to a MAC team at home the week after.

Florida dropped a lopsided decision to in-state rival Miami at home in its 2024 premiere, leaving head coach Billy Napier already one step behind in his attempt to earn the school’s confidence, coming off consecutive sub-.500 seasons and facing arguably college football’s toughest schedule.

What can we expect in this matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Florida and Texas A&M square off in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Florida vs. Texas A&M prediction, preview

1. Battle at the line. Texas A&M owns the defensive advantage up front with a strong line that can wreak havoc, but its relative weakness remains against the run, allowing 189 yards per game on average, and could struggle against senior Gators back Montrell Johnson, who has recovered from a preseason knee ailment and is averaging 6.7 yards per touch.

2. Who’s the QB? Graham Mertz projects to return after going through concussion protocol last week, although in his place freshman 5-star DJ Lagway looked good, accounting for 3 touchdowns and putting up 456 yards against Samford. Mertz has proved an efficient option and Napier doesn’t want to give up on him, but the A&M secondary has looked good.

3. Stop the run. Florida’s defense was among the SEC’s worst a year ago and has already displayed some troubling signs, like surrendering 144 rushing yards to the Hurricanes, who averaged 4.4 yards per carry in that game. With quarterback Conner Weigman nursing an injury, A&M wants to run the ball early, and could find enough running lanes to break off consistent intermediate gains.

Florida vs. Texas A&M odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas A&M: -3.5 (-118)
Florida: +3.5 (-104)

Aggies to win: -178
Gators to win: +146

Over 46.5 points: -105
Under 46.5 points: -115

Texas A&M vs. Florida prediction

The best position group on the field remains Texas A&M’s defensive front seven rotation, a unit that will contain Florida’s backs and force Mertz or Lagway to win the game with their arms.

Between them, Mertz could prove more efficient on a per-pass basis, but Lagway brings more big-play ability and a skill set that could force the Aggies into some in-game adjustments that throw them off schedule.

It’s an evenly-matched game, and while the Aggies have the better front seven rotation, the Gators might actually have a slight edge on aggregate when it comes to experience on both lines of scrimmage, and has the quarterback advantage.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Florida wins 24-20
• In an upset
• And hits the under

More ... Texas A&M vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

Texas A&M at Florida game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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