Florida State vs. Boston College score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Florida State vs. Boston College in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score prediction for Florida State vs. Boston College in this Week 1 college football game today. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 of a dramatic college football schedule comes to a close on Monday night in a battle of ACC teams that could have an impact on how the very early conference title chase shakes out, as No. 10 Florida State plays its home opener against Boston College today.

But that lofty No. 10 ranking is about to change, even with a win here, as the Seminoles dropped a three-point decision to unranked ACC foe Georgia Tech in the Week 0 opener, a game that has already dampened the school's hopes to qualify for the expanded College Football Playoff, and will likely be punished by AP top 25 voters this week.

That very expansion should aid the Noles, however, as a regular season loss shouldn't be quite as damaging as in years past, but there's still far less margin for error going forward.

Especially against a Boston College team that projects to play some good offense with dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos returning under center, now with NFL veteran Bill O'Brien stepping in as head coach and taking charge of this attack.

Castellanos had a better rushing output than many tailbacks a year ago, posting 1,113 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and scoring 13 touchdowns on 215 attempts.

That's in addition to his 2,248 yards passing and 15 touchdowns with his arm. But the Eagles' quarterback is also prone to turnovers, throwing 14 interceptions a year ago, and there are questions around his efficiency, as he completed just 57.1 percent of his pass attempts.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model as Florida State and Boston College reunite, along with the latest betting information.

Florida State vs. Boston College prediction

The simulations favor the Seminoles to hold firm in their home opener on Monday night.

SP+ predicts that Florida State will defeat Boston College by a projected score of 36 to 16 and to win the game by an expected 19.6 points.

The model gives the Seminoles a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory in the matchup.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Florida State vs. Boston College game odds

Florida State is a 16.5 point favorite against Boston College, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 49.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Florida State at -850 and for Boston College at +570.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Florida State -16.5
• Seminoles to win -850
• Bet over 49.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also project the Seminoles to take care of the Eagles at home.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index forecasts that Florida State will win the game in 82.4 percent of its simulations, while Boston College came out the winner in the remaining 17.6 percent of sims.

Florida State is projected to win 7.4 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, with a 6.5 percent chance to win the ACC championship, good for sixth in the league.

The index projects Boston College will win 5.4 games this season with a 47.6 percent shot to become bowl eligible and to win the ACC title in only 0.6 percent of simulations.

The model expects Florida State to be 11.1 points better than Boston College on any field in both team's current composition, not quite enough to cover this line.

Florida State vs. Boston College game time, schedule

When: Mon., Sept. 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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