Florida State vs. Memphis score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Florida State vs. Memphis in this Week 3 college football game.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Memphis Tigers Prediction / Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Once the No. 10 team in the country and the favorite to win the ACC and make the playoff, Florida State now sits at 0-2 on the year and looking for answers against AAC challenger and Group of Five playoff hopeful Memphis in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

The Seminoles took last week off following a surprising defeat to Boston College in the home opener in which they were kept out of the end zone for three quarters and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei held to 21 of 42 passing with a touchdown and an interception.

FSU ranks 128th nationally by rushing for 59.5 yards per game and is 118th in scoring offense, averaging 17 points per game, while sitting at 99th in scoring defense and 62nd in passing output.

Seth Henigan is completing 70 percent of his passes with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions for Memphis, while Mario Anderson is posting 6.3 yards per carry and has 4 of the Tigers' 7 rushing scores in an attack that ranks top-40 in points and 18th in scoring defense.

What do the analytics say about the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Memphis and Florida State compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Memphis vs. Florida State score prediction

The simulations favor the Seminoles to get their first win of the season, but it'll be very close.

SP+ predicts that Florida State will defeat Memphis by a projected score of 31 to 29 and to win the game by an expected 1.2 points.

The model gives the Seminoles a close 53 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Florida State is a 6.5 point favorite against Memphis, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Florida State at -235 to win outright and for Memphis at +190.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Memphis +6.5
• Seminoles to win -235
• Bet under 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Seminoles will hold off their AAC challenger.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida State is projected to win the game outright in 72.8 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Memphis comes out the winner in the remaining 27.2 percent of sims.

The index projects that Florida State will be 6 points better than Memphis on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover the spread.

Florida State will win 5.5 games this season, according to the computer's most recent calculations, and sits fifth-worst among ACC teams with a 0.6 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Memphis holds first place in the AAC with a 10.1 percent shot at the 12-team playoff and is projected to win 8.8 games this season on the index.

Florida State vs. Memphis game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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