Florida vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Florida vs. Mississippi State in this Week 4 college football game.

Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Prediction / Matt Bush-Imagn Images

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend with a pair of 1-2 clubs both looking for a spark and each coming off ugly home losses, as Florida travels to Mississippi State in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Florida dropped a 33-20 decision at home to a now-ranked Texas A&M a week ago that brought out the boo-birds at embattled head coach Billy Napier, as the Gators rank 102nd nationally in rushing production, 94th in scoring defense, and 84th in FBS in scoring offense.

Mississippi State has lost two straight, most recently a 41-17 result at home against MAC challenger Toledo, which scored on four of its first five possessions in a statement win in SEC Country.

The Bulldogs have now been out-scored, 55 to 6, in the first half of their first two games against the Rockets and at Arizona State the week before.

What can we expect from this weekend's matchup?

For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Mississippi State compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Florida vs. Mississippi State score prediction

So far, the simulations favor the road team to pick up the win in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Florida will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 32 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 5.5 points.

The model gives the Gators a 64 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Florida is a 6 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Florida at -225 and for Mississippi State at +190 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Mississippi State +6
• Gators to win -225
• Bet under 58.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Gators to pull out the road win this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida comes out the expected winner in 52.9 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

Mississippi State wins the game in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The index projects that Florida will be 3 points better than Mississippi State on the same field, also not enough cover the spread.

Florida will win 3.5 games this season and sits 13th among SEC teams with a 0.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the models.

FPI forecasts the Bulldogs will win 3.3 games and are officially at 0 percent to make the playoff.

Florida vs. Mississippi State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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