Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the Florida Gators and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A pair of SEC rivals meet in Starkville this weekend, both sitting at 1-2 and hoping to improve to .500 as the Florida Gators visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch out for in the game, with our updated prediction.

Already at 0-1 in SEC play, the Gators have bigger worries on their mind, like, how long until their head coach is fired?

Billy Napier was already on the hot seat, but now the consensus is that the question is when, not if.

A good showing in this game might delay the inevitable, but inevitable it does appear to be.

Jeff Lebby is under some pressure of his own, as the Bulldogs just dropped a surprising 41-17 decision at home to MAC challenger Toledo, and while they are stronger throwing the football, ranking 43rd nationally, they come in just 113th in FBS in rushing production.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Florida and Mississippi State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction, preview

1. Gator injuries. The team listed 10 players as out for the game, including star wide receiver Eugene Wilson, among 3 missing targets, a total of 6 defenders, and 4 total starters.

Elijah Badger should emerge as Florida’s next best target. He is 4th in the SEC with 86.7 yards per game and with 260 total yards, and averages almost 24 yards per reception, an important weapon to throw at a susceptible MSU secondary early and often.

2. Bulldogs’ air attack. Blake Shapen leads a passing game that has shown some potential, ranking 20th nationally with 834 yards and hitting 70 percent of his passes.

His 7 TD passes are good for 18th among all quarterbacks in the country, and MSU scores quick, too: 6 of its 11 TD drives have been 5 plays or less.

3. Florida in defense. The Gators’ secondary has struggled through 3 games, ranking 92nd nationally and last among SEC teams by allowing 236 yards passing per game on average.

It could have trouble against receivers like Kevin Coleman, Jr., who leads FBS with 17.9 yards per play and is 3rd in the SEC in total receiving production.

Florida vs. Mississippi State game odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida: -6.5 (-115)
Mississippi State: +6.5 (-105)

Over 58.5 points: -105
Under 58.5 points: -115

Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction

While the Gators have the edge on both lines, Shapen and the Bulldog offense will keep it close with a battery of intermediate passes against a vulnerable Florida pass defense alignment that will keep the chains moving.

But their inability to sustain long drives will play into the Gators’ favor as the game wears on.

Florida will rotate Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway at quarterback again, but whoever is under center should find throwing lanes against a Bulldog defense that is 94th in FBS in total production and let Toledo rack up 10 yards per pass and 454 total yards last week.

Mississippi State is 122nd nationally in rushing defense, allowing more than 213 yards per game on the ground and letting backs average 4.58 yards per carry, and is struggling hard to generate much of any consistent pass rush, a weakness that will become clear late in the game.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Florida wins 31-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Florida vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert model

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