Florida vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Florida vs. Tennessee by the football model that picks winners.

Florida vs. Tennessee football prediction / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

A classic SEC football rivalry returns to Rocky Top this weekend between a pair of teams that are 1-1 in conference play, as No. 8 Tennessee comes off a loss as it faces Florida in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game from the model that picks winners.

Tennessee was slow to start and didn’t have enough to finish in an upset loss at unranked Arkansas last weekend, but still ranks fourth nationally in both scoring offense and defense and is 5th in FBS in rushing production.

Florida gave head coach Billy Napier a little more time with a win against UCF last week, a second straight victory that followed a dominant SEC debut against Mississippi State.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction

As expected, most projections favor the Volunteers over the Gators.

Tennessee is projected to win the game outright in the majority 86.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Vols win out in 17,380 of the index’s 20,000 simulations of the game, while the Gators come out ahead in the other 2,620 projections.

Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Tennessee is a 15.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -700 and for Florida at +500 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors consider Vols the far better team on the field, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 64 percent of them -- predict Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers expect Florida will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for Tennessee.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Florida by a projected score of 36 to 20 in the game.

Tennessee is fifth among SEC teams with a 48 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Florida a win total projection of 5 games and a 31.2 percent shot at a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

-

How to watch Florida vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET | 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks