Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Florida vs. Tennessee in this Week 7 college football game.

Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

One of the SEC’s oldest rivalries gets underway this weekend from Rocky Top as No. 8 Tennessee returns home against Florida in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

Tennessee dropped to 1-1 in SEC play last week after a stunning loss to unranked Arkansas in which the offense started very slow and didn’t have enough to finish, but still is among the nation’s best rushing teams and working behind a very strong defensive front seven.

Florida is also 1-1 in conference games, but 3-2 overall after losses to Miami and Texas A&M and embarks on the first of an expected five games against ranked opponents in a second-half of a schedule described as the most difficult in college football this season.

What do the analytics suggest for this classic SEC football rivalry matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Tennessee compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction

As was expected, the models are siding strongly with the Volunteers over the Gators this week.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 23 and will win the game by an expected 11.2 point margin.

The model gives the Vols a strong 76 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Florida vs. Tennessee odds, picks

Tennessee is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -600 and for Florida at +450 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Florida +14.5
• Vols to win -600
• Bet over 56.5 points

A stronger majority of bettors predict the Volunteers will handle the Gators at home this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 65 percent of bets currently suggest that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 35 percent of wagers project that Florida will either win in an upset or keep the game within 2 touchdowns.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Vols over the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win outright in the overwhelming 87 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Tennessee is fifth among SEC teams with a 47.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Florida a win total projection of 5 games and a 30.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.

How to watch Florida vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

More ... Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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