Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

Here's what you should watch for as Florida and Tennessee meet in this Week 7 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Prediction / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

A classic SEC football rivalry returns to Rocky Top this weekend as No. 8 Tennessee is back home against Florida in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee was slow to start and couldn’t finish in a loss at unranked Arkansas last week, but ranks fourth nationally in both scoring offense and defense and is 5th in FBS in rushing production.

Florida bought head coach Billy Napier some more time with a win against UCF last week, a second straight victory that followed a dominant SEC debut against Mississippi State.

What can we expect when the Volunteers and Gators square off in this rivalry?

Here is what you should watch for as Florida and Tennessee renew their rivalry, with our updated prediction for the game.

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Tennessee is one of the nation’s premier rushing teams, ranking 5th in FBS with 267 yards per game on average, and lead back Dylan Sampson leads the SEC with 12 rushing touchdowns, a huge advantage as the passing game has started inconsistently in conference play.

That will be a problem for the Gators, who have struggled stopping the run so far, allowing 173 yards per game on the ground on average, the second-worst mark in the SEC, while surrendering 8 rushing touchdowns, also the second-most in the league.

2. Battle at the line. Tennessee’s defense is stout all over, but it starts at the line, a ferocious unit that is responsible for 38 tackles for loss, ranks 1st in FBS on third down, 3rd nationally by allowing 4 red zone touchdowns, and is 4th in scoring defense.

It could be challenged by a Florida offensive line that so far has protected its quarterbacks moderately well this season, allowing just 20 total tackles for loss and all of 5 sacks so far, both of which rank second-best among all SEC teams.

3. Go deep. Tennessee is really yet to scratch the surface of what quarterback Nico Iamaleava can do with the football. The offense ranks just 79th in FBS in explosive passing plays, far below what the QB’s potential would suggest. Josh Heupel could open the book against a Florida pass defense that is 126th among 134 FBS teams in allowing 23 passes of 20 yards or more this season.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models suggest the Volunteers have the edge over the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win outright in the majority 87 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Tennessee vs. Florida prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Tennessee is a 15 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -650 and for Florida at +475 to win outright.

Most bettors expect the Vols to handle the Gators at home, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 65 percent -- expect Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers project the Gators will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

This is a good moment for the Vols’ offense to really show its true colors. It’s easy to beat up on cupcakes, but the performance against Arkansas last week was concerning, and the offense has averaged a shade under 20 points in two road SEC games.

Whoever is throwing the ball for the Gators, be it Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway, could find some throwing lanes against the Vols’ younger corners, and this UF vertical game is responsible for 20 passing completions of 20 or more yards this season.

But Tennessee’s superb edge rushing combination, a unit responsible for 93 pressures already, should stymie the Gators’ offensive momentum late in the game to pull out the win.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 31-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

How to watch Florida vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET | 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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