Florida vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Texas A&M vs. Florida in this Week 3 college football game.

Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A pair of SEC rivals meet up in The Swamp this weekend, both coming in at 1-1 with notable early losses but looking to avoid falling below .500 as Texas A&M visits Florida in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Both these teams suffered costly defeats in the season opener: Texas A&M at home to Notre Dame, a loss that looks worse after the Irish lost to Northern Illinois the week after; and Florida to Miami in which the defense allowed 41 points as Graham Mertz was held out of the end zone.

It's the SEC opener for both schools, and this game will help give us a better look at how each of these teams stack up against conference opposition, both for A&M first-year coach Mike Elko and third-year Gators head coach Billy Napier, who is under considerable pressure to right the ship.

A&M ranks 118th nationally with 148 passing yards on average per game as quarterback Conner Weigman is completing 52.3 percent of his throws, while Florida is 32nd throwing the ball, but should see its output improve with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway seeing more time on the field.

What do the analytics project for the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Texas A&M compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Florida vs. Texas A&M score prediction

The simulations favor the road team in this game, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts Texas A&M will defeat Florida by a projected score of 30 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 2.5 points.

The model gives Texas A&M a close 56 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Texas A&M is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which listed the total as 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -176 to win outright and for Florida at +146.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Florida +3.5
• Texas A&M to win -176
• Bet over 47.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also predict the Aggies will defeat the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M comes out the expected winner in a slight majority 59.3 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Florida is expected to win in 40.7 percent of sims.

The index estimates that Texas A&M will be 15.2 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams' current composition, enough to cover the spread.

Texas A&M will win 6.7 games this season and is ninth among SEC teams with a 5.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the model's latest calculations.

Florida is second-last in the SEC with a 0.3 percent shot at the 12-team playoff and the index predicts the Gators will win 4 games, with a mere 16.3 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

Florida vs. Texas A&M game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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