Florida vs. Tulane score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Florida vs. Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl game from a football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida Gators vs. Tulane Green Wave football score prediction for the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl game / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida and Tulane square off in this year’s Gasparilla Bowl as college football’s 2024 postseason marches on. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida appeared doomed midseason, with head coach Billy Napier on the hot seat and seemingly on the way out, but a three-game win streak, including two victories against ranked opponents, was a solid finish to arguably college football’s toughest overall schedule in 2024.

Tulane was a College Football Playoff sleeper team out of the AAC and Group of Five ranks, but an upset loss to Memphis ended those slim hopes, and a loss to Army in the conference championship game followed, as did the departure of quarterback Darian Mensah to the portal.

What do the analytics predict as the Gators and Green Wave meet in this postseason matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Tulane compare in the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl game.

Florida vs. Tulane score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the SEC challengers over the AAC hopefuls, but expect a narrow margin when all is said and done.

SP+ predicts that Florida will defeat Tulane by a projected score of 31 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Gators a 63 percent chance of outright victory over the Green Wave.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Florida vs. Tulane odds, how to pick the game

Florida is a 9.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for Bowl Season.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Florida at -385 and for Tulane at +300 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Tulane +9.5
• Florida to win -385
• Bet over 49.5 points

That would put you in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Gators to take care of the Green Wave, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Florida is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Tulane will either upset the Gators in an outright victory, or keep the margin under 10 points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Gators over the Green Wave in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Florida is the narrow favorite in the game on the index, coming out on top in 54.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tulane as the presumptive winner in the game in the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Expect a very close one.

Florida is projected to be just 1.4 points better than Tulane on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl Game

When: Fri., Dec. 20
Where: Tampa, Fla.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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