Florida vs. UCF score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Florida vs. UCF in this Week 6 college football game.

Florida vs. UCF score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

This weekend brings us a notable in-state Big 12 vs. SEC matchup from the Sunshine State as Florida welcomes UCF in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction from the expert model that picks winners.

KJ Jefferson is looking to win in the Swamp for a second-straight year, after he led Arkansas to a victory at Florida last season, now as UCF’s quarterback leading an attack that ranks 2nd nationally in rushing output and top-25 by scoring almost 40 points per game.

Billy Napier remains on the proverbial hot seat amid a 2-2 start in what was meant to be a prove-it year for the Gators head coach, ranking 83rd in FBS in rushing production and 92nd in scoring defense.

What do the experts think of this Big 12 vs. SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how UCF and Florida compare in this Week 6 college football game.

UCF vs. Florida score prediction

The simulations are favoring the Gators at home in this one, but by a slim margin.

SP+ predicts that Florida will defeat UCF by a projected score of 34 to 29 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5.1 points.

The model gives the Gators a 62 percent chance of outright victory over the Knights.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

UCF vs. Florida odds

UCF is a 2.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for UCF at -135 and for Florida at +115 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Florida +2.5
• In an upset
• Bet over 61.5 points

So far, a slight majority of bettors are still sticking with the favorite, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 52 percent of bets are projecting that UCF will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 48 percent of wagers predict that Florida will pull off the upset or stay within 2.5 points.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the SEC team in this non-conference game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida comes out as the projected winner in the majority 51.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves UCF as the expected winner in the remaining 48.6 percent of sims.

Florida is projected to be 2.5 points better than UCF on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

UCF is sixth among Big 12 teams with a 5.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts that Florida will win 4.2 games with a 14.8 percent shot at playing in a bowl game.

How to watch UCF vs. Florida

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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