Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What you should watch for as Georgia and Ole Miss meet in this Week 11 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

A marquee SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 3 Georgia faces the third major road test of its season in a battle against No. 16 Ole Miss on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the game, along with our updated prediction.

Georgia debuted at No. 3 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, but would be the No. 2 seed as the presumptive SEC champion if the playoff began today in the early bracket, but with other contenders in the mix, there’s little margin for error heading into this game.

Ole Miss has less room to maneuver, sitting at 3-2 in SEC play and hoping to avoid falling to .500 in conference games after that slow start, and sitting just outside the top-dozen, making another third loss enough for the selection committee to keep the Rebels out of the playoff.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs and Rebels meet up in this SEC confrontation this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Georgia and Ole Miss meet in this Week 11 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Georgia’s offensive protection has been solid enough, allowing just 1.25 sacks per game on average, but has its work cut out against the Rebels’ strong defensive front seven.

Ole Miss can get after you, coming into this weekend tops nationally with 41 total sacks and 94 negative plays, 17 more than the next best team, sits at No. 1 with 10.44 tackles for loss per game, and is second in FBS with 4.56 sacks per game.

2. Turnovers. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has thrown 6 interceptions over the last two games, all resulting in near-comeback efforts by opponents, and had another 3 in the loss to Alabama, bringing his total to 11 picks on the year.

Ole Miss only has 7 intercepted passes this season but is top 25 nationally with a plus-0.78 turnover margin per game and boasts a solid front seven rotation that can create pressure and force throws against a speedy back seven alignment that can make plays when the ball is in the air.

3. Spread it out. Ole Miss ranks No. 1 nationally in passing offense, posting over 377 yards per game, hitting almost 70 percent of its throws, and is 2nd in FBS with 11.2 yards per pass attempt, as Jaxson Dart is coming off a school-record 515 yards passing in a beatdown against Arkansas.

Dart’s 21 touchdown passes are the most among SEC quarterbacks, and the Rebels are tops in the conference with 42.1 points per game on average. 

Georgia faces 30.1 pass attempts per game, and ranks 26th nationally in air defense, surrendering 56.8 percent completion and just 8 total touchdowns to opposing passers.

What the analytics say

Many analytical prediction models suggest the Rebels will take down the Bulldogs in this SEC matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss comes out just ahead in the majority 53.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Ole Miss as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Ole Miss is projected to be 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -134 and for Ole Miss at +112 to win outright.

Georgia: -2.5 (-110)
Ole Miss: +2.5 (-110)

Over 54.5 points: -105
Under 54.5 points: -115

Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: Who wins?

Beck’s recent proclivity for turnovers is quite concerning, especially as he lines up against an aggressive Rebels front seven that has been getting consistent results behind the line.

And that sluggish offensive output comes at the same time Ole Miss has apparently found its groove on offense after stacking up 63 points on the Hogs, and on a defense that poses a threat to Georgia’s ground game with a solid rush defense that can shut down those inside running lanes.

But the Rebels are now going without tailback Henry Parrish and the status of lead receiver Tre Harris is still an open question, and there’s some concern around their protection, which surrendered over two-dozen pressures in its two losses, and Georgia’s front seven packs a heartier punch up front than the likes of Kentucky or LSU.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 34-30
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction by expert model

How to watch Georgia vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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