Georgia Tech vs. Louisville score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia Tech vs. Louisville in this Week 4 college football game.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Louisville Cardinals Prediction / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

ACC rivals square off this weekend in a battle of conference title hopefuls, as No. 19 Louisville returns to the field against Georgia Tech in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Georgia Tech was briefly ranked before a 7-point loss at Syracuse two weeks ago, but rebounded by pounding VMI and sits top-50 nationally in passing and rushing production, hoping to avoid falling to a 1-2 mark against ACC competition this season.

Louisville is coming out of its idle week, showing off a potent passing attack that ranks 13th nationally and 3rd in FBS by scoring 55.5 points on average per game, but the schedule gets tougher starting in this week's ACC opener.

What do the experts think of the matchup?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia Tech and Louisville compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville score prediction

The simulations currently favor the home team in this game, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Louisville will defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 35 to 23 and to win the game by an expected 12.9 points.

The model gives the Cardinals a 79 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Louisville is a 10.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 57.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Louisville at -345 and for Georgia Tech at +270 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Louisville -10.5
• Cardinals to win -345
• Bet over 57.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Cardinals to take care of business at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Louisville is projected to win the game in 78.4 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 21.6 percent of sims.

The model expects Louisville to be 12 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field, also enough to cover the spread.

Louisville sits second among ACC teams with a 26.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and to win 8.6 games this season, according to the FPI metrics.

That model projects Georgia Tech will win 6.4 games and has a 1.9 percent shot at the playoff.

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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