Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Alabama in this Week 5 college football game in the SEC.

Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The biggest game in the early 2024 season and a rematch of last year’s SEC Championship Game kicks off under the lights on Saturday night as No. 2 Georgia pays a visit to No. 4 Alabama with revenge in mind in college football’s Week 5 action.

Georgia is 1-0 in SEC play so far, but it was a sloppy and concerning 1-point victory against Kentucky that left more questions than answers on both sides of the ball.

Alabama upset the Bulldogs in Atlanta last year in what became Nick Saban’s last win with the program, spoiling UGA’s undefeated season, and now Kalen DeBoer faces his first major test replacing the GOAT in a game that will serve as an early litmus test for his coaching tenure.

What can we expect in this weekend’s matchup from Bryant-Denny Stadium?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get an early preview for how Alabama and Georgia compare heading into this SEC football game.

Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction

So far, the simulations are predicting something of an upset in favor of the home team.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 29 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 3.3 points.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -128 and for Alabama at +106 to win outright.

And it set the total for 48.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama +1.5
• Bama to win +106
• Bet over 48.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models are also siding with the Crimson Tide against the Bulldogs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game in the majority 65.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 34.2 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 6.1 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

The Crimson Tide is second among SEC teams with an 83.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.6 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects Georgia will win 9.3 games and is fifth in the SEC with a 70.6 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.

How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

More ... Alabama vs. Georgia prediction: What the analytics say

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