Georgia vs. Auburn prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Georgia vs. Auburn by the football model that picks winners.

Georgia vs. Auburn football predictions / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry kicks off this weekend as No. 5 Georgia looks to rebound from its first loss, taking on Auburn in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday.

Georgia rallied from a 28-0 deficit on the road against Alabama last week as quarterback Carson Beck led a furious comeback, and even taking a late lead, but it wasn’t enough to pull out the win.

Auburn was leading Oklahoma much of the day last time out, but Payton Thorne threw a pick-six that ultimately cost the team, falling to 0-2 in SEC play so far.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Auburn prediction

As expected, the models strongly favor the Bulldogs to rebound against the Tigers this week.

Georgia is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 8.8 percent of sims.

Georgia is projected to be 21.1 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Georgia is a 24 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -2500 and for Auburn at +1200 to win outright.

A majority of bettors are expecting the Bulldogs to dominate in the game, according to the latest consensus spread picks.

Around 54 percent of bets are expecting Georgia to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

And the remaining 46 percent of wagers project Auburn will keep the game within the line.

Georgia is fourth among SEC teams with a 71.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index forecasts that Georgia will be 25.2 points better than an average team on a neutral field.

That model expects Auburn to win 4.8 games and gives it a 26 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

Auburn will be 6.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, the index projects.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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