Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Auburn in this Week 6 college football game.

Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry gets underway this weekend between the hedges as No. 5 Georgia looks to rebound from its first loss in a matchup against Auburn in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions by the expert model that picks winners.

Georgia is coming off its first regular season loss since the 2020 season in a 41-34 result at Alabama, but it could have been much worse after the defense surrendered an early 28-0 lead, and there are still bigger road tests to come for the national title hopefuls.

Auburn has kept things close in this rivalry, which was tied between the schools as recently as a decade ago, but it came out on the losing end of the last 7 against the Bulldogs, and sits 0-2 in SEC play after losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma, both at home.

What do the experts think of this year’s edition of the rivalry?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Auburn compare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction

As expected, the simulations sit decisively in the Bulldogs’ favor against the Tigers this week.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 13.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 80 percent of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Georgia vs. Auburn odds

Georgia is a 24 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -2500 and for Auburn at +1200 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Auburn +24
• Georgia to win -2500
• Bet over 52.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also expect the Bulldogs to hold serve against the Tigers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia is projected to win out in the majority 91.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the other 8.8 percent of sims.

Georgia is projected to be 21.1 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

That would still not be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread this week.

A slight majority of bets -- 54 percent -- expect Georgia will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Auburn will keep the game within the 24 point line.

Georgia is fourth among SEC teams with a 71.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Auburn a win projection total of 4.8 games and a 26.3 percent shot to make a bowl game.

How to watch Auburn vs. Georgia

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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