Georgia vs. Auburn prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Georgia hosts Auburn in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry, with our prediction for this Week 6 college football game.

Georgia vs. Auburn game prediction / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry kicks off between the hedges this weekend as No. 5 Georgia welcomes Auburn in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday, with both teams looking to rebound from losses. Let’s check in with our updated prediction for the game.

It could’ve been worse for Georgia last week, falling behind by 4 touchdowns early at Alabama, but Carson Beck and the offense rallied in the second half and took a late 3 point lead before the Tide stormed back to win by a touchdown.

As a result, Georgia lost the first of three important road tests this season, with dates at Texas and Ole Miss to come, in addition to a home tilt against Tennessee in the future.

Auburn has lost 2 of its last 3 with an 0-2 start in SEC play following losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma and, despite some costly offensive blunders, still ranks 25th nationally in passing output and is good for over 33 points per game so far while allowing under 19 on defense.

What can we expect in this matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as Georgia and Auburn renew their rivalry, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Auburn prediction: What to watch

1. Turnovers. Payton Thorne is back in at QB1 after losing the job for a time, but the Auburn quarterback has thrown 6 interceptions in 4 games, including the game-losing pick-six to OU last weekend.

Auburn as a team is dead-last in FBS with a miserable minus-11 turnover margin while ranking second-worst with a minus-2.2 margin per game and 15 total turnovers.

Despite Georgia’s overall superb defensive play, the unit has failed to make a mark taking the ball away from opponents thus far, sitting at 96th nationally with just 2 picks and 4 takeaways total.

2. Third down. If Auburn can hold onto the ball, it can actually make some noise on offense, ranking 8th nationally with 7.64 yards per play and Thorne presents a mobility challenge for Georgia’s defense, as he’s run for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns this season.

And he had a 62-yard rushing touchdown on 92 total ground yards in last year’s game against Georgia.

That has helped Auburn start out to a decent 49th national ranking on the money down, converting third downs 44 percent of the time, good for 22 out of 50 attempts. Georgia is 63rd in third down defense, letting opponents move the chains on 19 of 52 tries, for 36.54 percent success.

Georgia is just 107th in FBS in third down offense, converting 16 of its 48 attempts (33.33 percent). That’s after the team led the nation in this category a year ago. Auburn has allowed teams to convert 27 of 77 third down tries (35.06 percent).

3. Establish the run. Having to throw the ball early and often last week resulted in Georgia being unable to build its customary offensive momentum, instead needing to rely too heavily on Carson Beck to throw the team out of an early big hole, resulting in 4 costly turnovers, and shifted attention away from trying to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Trevor Etienne is Georgia’s primary rushing threat so far, running for 55 yards last week, and in the injury-induced absence of Roderick Robinson, the offense is relying more on Cash Jones, a solid third down back who can catch passes and is one of the better pass blockers Georgia has in the backfield.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models expect the Bulldogs to handle the Tigers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 8.7 percent of sims.

Georgia is projected to be 21.1 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Georgia vs. Auburn prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 22 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -2000 and for Auburn at +1100 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a majority of bettors expect the Bulldogs to get back on track this Saturday, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 56 percent of bets predict that Georgia will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 44 percent of wagers project that Auburn will keep the game within the line.

Georgia vs. Auburn prediction: Who wins?

Slow starts have defined Georgia’s offense so far this season, scoring just 1 touchdown in the first half of its games against Power Four opposition.

But after last week’s near-debacle at Alabama, the Bulldogs are in a frame of mind where they want to get aggressive and pave a clearer path going forward.

Auburn’s defense is good, but not great, and doesn’t present a lot of credible playmakers who can realistically disrupt Georgia at the line.

A lot of Auburn’s problems on offense come down to not being able to control the time of possession battle, instead going on short drives and not giving its defense time to get off the field.

Georgia’s front seven has the bodies to upset Thorne in the pocket and prevent him from building early momentum with his good receivers and force him into some of Auburn’s many turnovers.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More .. Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction by expert model

How to watch Auburn vs. Georgia

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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