Georgia vs. Florida football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Georgia vs. Florida in this Week 10 college football game.

Georgia vs. Florida football prediction / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

One of the SEC’s best rivalry games kicks off this weekend as The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party finds Florida playing challenger against No. 2 Georgia. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Georgia is 4-1 in SEC play after upsetting Texas on the road two weeks ago, and there’s little margin for error going forward with games against Ole Miss and Tennessee still to come.

Florida improved to 4-3 overall after taking out Kentucky but embarks on what looks like the toughest portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing four ranked teams over its final five games.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Florida predictions

As expected, the Bulldogs are big favorites over the Gators according to the models.

Georgia is expected to win the game outright in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Bulldogs came out ahead in 15,980 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Gators edged out their rivals in the other 4,020 of the predictions.

And the index foresees a double-digit victory for the Bulldogs on the scoreboard.

Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Georgia is a 16.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Bulldogs to dominate the Gators in this rivalry game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely keep the game under 17 points in a loss.

Georgia vs. Florida future predictions

Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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