Georgia vs. Florida Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to watch for as Georgia and Florida meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction as the The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party kicks off.

Georgia vs. Florida Prediction / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is here as No. 2 Georgia squares off against Florida in college football’s Week 10 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.

Florida moved to 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky but is heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

Here is what you should watch for as Georgia and Florida meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs Florida prediction: What to watch

1. Reunion. Georgia tailback Trevor Etienne left Florida last season and arrived in Athens, waiting for this chance to get his old team. He leads the Bulldogs with 422 rushing yards and has scored 7 times, but is yet to eclipse 100 yards in a single game.

Florida is 15th in the SEC and 94th nationally in rush defense this season in total production, but the front seven rotation has greatly improved over the last three games, ranking top 30 in that category in that span, and is getting its linebackers in close to limit a lot of gains on the ground.

2. Pressure. Florida 5-star freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has quietly improved the Gators’ passing output recently, and is currently the most efficient passer in the SEC on deep throws, according to Pro Football Focus numbers.

But he could struggle to find his footing consistently against an aggressive Georgia pass defense that has allowed just 15 completions of 20-plus yards and is blitzing quarterbacks more than it ever has in the Kirby Smart era. Any early struggles for UF’s quarterback could be very costly.

3. Turnovers. Florida’s defense has been better at generating takeaways lately, forcing 6 turnovers from opponents over the last 3 games, improving the team’s turnover margin to minus-1 on the year.

Georgia’s Carson Beck has thrown 8 interceptions in his last 4 outings, which have played a role in the team’s generally inconsistent offensive output of late, and could play into a recent strength for the Gators’ defense.

Georgia’s offense vs. Florida’s defense

Georgia comes into the game averaging 30.5 points per contest on the year, ranking No. 39 nationally, going against a Florida defense allowing 26.3 points per game, ranking 74th.

In terms of total production, the Bulldogs are averaging 416.2 yards per game in 2024, ranking No. 41 in FBS, while the Gators are surrendering 398.5 yards on average, good for 86th nationally.

Georgia is good for 0.445 points per play on average this season, ranking No. 38 in the country, while Florida is allowing 0.357 points per play on defense, ranking 61st nationally.

On third down, Georgia ranks just 87th in the country, converting 34 of 89 possible attempts for a success rate of 38.2 percent this season.

Defensively, the Gators allow opponents to convert 39 of 98 opportunities (39.8 percent).

Working in the red zone, Georgia has come away with points on 28 of 31 opportunities for a 90.32 percent success rate, and 21 of those scores are touchdowns (67.74%).

Florida has let opponents score points on 19 of 23 red zone chances for a 82.61 percent success rate while 13 of those scores were touchdowns (56.52%).

Florida’s offense vs. Georgia’s defense

Florida has averaged 28.5 points per game this season, ranking 51st nationally, against a Georgia defense that is surrendering 19.2 points per game on average, ranking 17th.

In total production terms, the Gators are posting 376.8 yards per game, which is good for 76th in FBS, while the Bulldogs are allowing 333.3 yards per game on defense, 30th nationally.

Florida is averaging 0.458 points per play this season, ranking 33rd in FBS, while the Georgia defense has allowed opponents to average 0.286 points per play, ranking 21st nationally.

On third down, the Gators offense has moved the chains on 31 of 78 chances this season (39.74 percent), while the Bulldogs have allowed teams to convert on 27 of 90 chances (30%).

In the red area, Florida has come away with points on 27 of 32 opportunities for an 84.38 percent success rate while 22 of those scores (68.75%) are touchdowns.

Georgia allows teams to turn 14 out of 17 red zone opportunities into points (82.35%) but just 8 of those scores are touchdowns, the third-fewest nationally.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the Bulldogs to take down the Gators in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.

Georgia vs. Florida prediction: Who wins?

Florida should stay in this game for at least the first half, courtesy of a Georgia back seven that has occasionally been generous to opposing quarterbacks, and a front seven unit that has improved and could throw the Bulldogs’ ground game off schedule for a while.

But over time, Georgia’s blitz packages should finally shrink Lagway’s pocket enough to where he starts making mistakes while Beck and his receivers expose the back end of the Gators’ secondary.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 34-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert model

How to watch Georgia vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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