Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Florida in this Week 10 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia vs. Florida score prediction 2024 / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces off against SEC rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.

Florida moved to 4-3 on the year with a 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky and is a respectable 34th nationally in passing output with 264 yards per game, averaging almost 31 points per game heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.

Georgia vs. Florida score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Bulldogs over the Gators, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 22 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Georgia vs. Florida picks, odds

Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Florida +14.5
• Georgia to win -630
• Bet over 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who expect the Bulldogs will dominate the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score to 2 touchdowns or fewer in a prospective loss.

Georgia vs. Florida splits

Georgia has played some closer games this season, coming out 11.3 points ahead of its opponents this season when averaging out the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Florida has fared 2.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.

Those figures have grown closer over the last three games, however.

Georgia has been 14.3 points better than the competition over that span, and Florida has improved to being 11 points better than opponents over that time.

Georgia is averaging 30.5 points per game this season, compared to Florida at 28.5 points per game on average.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are surrendering 19.2 points per game and the Gators are allowing 26.3 points per game on average.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also suggest the Bulldogs will take down the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory? The index forecasts that the Gators will take the points this week.

Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Georgia vs. Florida future predictions

Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

How to watch Georgia vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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