Georgia vs. Georgia Tech football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Georgia vs. Georgia Tech in the 2024 edition of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate by an analytical football model that simulates games.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech football prediction 2024 / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Clean Old Fashioned Hate kicks off between the hedges to close out the 2024 regular season as Georgia welcomes Georgia Tech. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Georgia appears to have cleared its remaining hurdles in the race to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game next weekend.

Georgia Tech sits in the top-third of the ACC standings with a 5-3 conference mark and boasts a win over league favorite Miami earlier this year.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Bulldogs over the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 89.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 10.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Bulldogs come out on top in 17,940 of the index’s calculations of the matchup, while the Ramblin’ Wreck edge out Georgia in the other 2,060 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be 19.2 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the big line against the Yellow Jackets.

That’s because Georgia is a 19.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -1400 and for Georgia Tech at +800 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Yellow Jackets to stay close against the Bulldogs, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia Tech is getting 65 percent of bets to either win the game outright, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 20 points in a loss.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Georgia will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech future projections

Georgia is sixth nationally and second among SEC teams with a 94.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model ranks the Bulldogs third in the country with an 11.6 percent chance to win the national championship, behind Texas (21.3%) and favorite Ohio State (22.2%).

The index projects Georgia Tech will win 7.1 games this season, implying it will not win again, even in the eventual bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Georgia Tech vs. Georgia

When: Fri., Nov. 29
Where: Athens, Ga.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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