Georgia vs. Notre Dame football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Georgia vs. Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal round from an analytical model that simulates games.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame football prediction 2024 / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Georgia and Notre Dame are set to square off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round at the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame took down Big Ten challenger Indiana in the first round game at home and is playing some of the best defense in the country and boasts one of the most productive rushing attacks.

Georgia has played up and down this year, and though it did enough to win the SEC championship, it came at a cost, as quarterback Carson Beck is out for the rest of the year after having surgery to repair an injury to his throwing arm.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame predictions

Notably, the simulations are going against the SEC team for a change, and are siding with the Fighting Irish over the Bulldogs in this quarterfinal game.

Notre Dame is the narrow favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 53.7 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

Georgia isn’t favored to win the game, but did come out on top of the Irish in the remaining 46.3 percent of the simulations, so the model clearly expects a close result.

Notre Dame won out in 10,740 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Georgia edged out the Irish in the other 9,260 predictions for the matchup.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

As the projections indicate, we can expect a very close contest.

Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset.

That’s because Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the most recent lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points (Over -106, Under -114).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -128 and for Notre Dame at +106 to win outright.

-

What the bettors say

Bettors are almost evenly split on how to predict this matchup, with the Irish getting a little more confidence than the Bulldogs, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 51 percent of the bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to lose the matchup by a single point.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Georgia will win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

-

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

-

How to watch the 2024 Sugar Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: New Orleans, La.

Time: 8:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks