Georgia vs. Notre Dame prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Georgia and Notre Dame face off in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame football prediction / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Georgia and Notre Dame meet in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal round on New Year’s Day with a crack at the semifinals on the line. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for this historic playoff game.

Georgia sat out the first round of the College Football Playoff after earning the No. 2 seed in the bracket following its dramatic win over Texas in the SEC Championship Game.

Notre Dame hosted Big Ten challenger Indiana in the first round game at home, showing off a strong rushing threat and some suffocating defense in a dominant victory over the Hoosiers.

What can we expect as the Fighting Irish and the Bulldogs face off in the postseason?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame and Georgia meet in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame prediction: What to watch

1. QB change. Carson Beck is out of the picture for Georgia after his arm injury, paving the way for Gunner Stockton to step in as QB1 for the Bulldogs against the Irish.

And while Beck’s production was decidedly inconsistent this past season, Georgia would have preferred to have a passer of his experience working under center.

Stockton may lack experience, but he got some during the SEC Championship Game, leading three scoring drives, and showing off an impressively physical and aggressive running style.

As the Bulldogs work through their sudden quarterback change, expect them to show a lot of play action, plenty of quarterback draws, extra work for backs Nate Frazier and Trevor Etienne, and more screen passes for their tailbacks to spread out Notre Dame’s superb front seven alignment.

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2. On the ground. Georgia has played some ferocious defense up front the last few seasons, and while this group isn’t as dominant as some that came before, it can still pack a punch.

It’ll have to against a Notre Dame ground attack that is among the nation’s best, coming into the game ranked 10th nationally with almost 225 rushing yards per game on average.

Georgia is a respectable 36th among 134 FBS teams when it comes to rush defense, allowing opposing backs to average just under 128 yards per game rushing.

Jeremiyah Love is one of college football’s top big play threats on the ground, averaging almost 7.5 yards per carry, and Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is a credible dual threat and 1 of 10 players with 1,900 passing yards and at least 700 rushing yards combined.

Love has scored a touchdown in every game this season, and Leonard has rushed for 15 touchdowns, a critical advantage given the Irish are just 101st in passing yardage per game.

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3. At the line. A big part of Notre Dame’s excellent front seven went down in the first round game after defensive tackle Rylie Mills exited with a knee injury.

Mills was a major contributor for the Irish up front, leading the team with 7.5 sacks and 27 quarterback pressures from the interior.

Now, he’s out of the picture, as are edge rushers Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore, two other front line principals who were also lost during the season.

Gabriel Rubio proved a productive replacement for Mills during the Indiana game, and Notre Dame also got Howard Cross back in the lineup after he missed three games with an injury.

Mills’ absence, combined with Georgia’s quarterback swap, should give the Bulldogs additional incentive to run the ball hard early and often.

Georgia isn’t an elite running team, ranking just 99th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing production with just over 129 yards per game.

Notre Dame is 40th nationally in rush defense, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry from opposing backs and only 11 total rushing touchdowns, while surrendering 133 yards per game.

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Sugar Bowl 2024: Who is favored?

Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -114 and for Notre Dame at -105 to win outright.

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Georgia vs. Notre Dame prediction: Who wins?

Stockton’s very limited exposure as a passer could prove a costly liability for Georgia as it lines up against a Notre Dame pass defense that is among the very best in the country.

Especially given the inconsistent performance of the Bulldogs’ wide receivers this year.

Notre Dame’s offense runs through its run game, and if it should stumble early on and not build enough momentum against Georgia’s rush defense, this game could turn sideways quickly.

While the Bulldogs’ secondary has struggled at times to contain opposing receivers, that shouldn’t be as great a concern going against an Irish vertical game that isn’t a real threat.

We’re betting on Georgia to have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage and do just enough to prevent Notre Dame from winning the game on the ground.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 27-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Georgia vs. Notre Dame score prediction by football model

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How to watch the 2024 Sugar Bowl Game

When: Thurs., Jan. 2
Where: New Orleans, La.

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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