Georgia vs. Notre Dame score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal game by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame football score prediction 2024 / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Georgia and Notre Dame are set to square off in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal game: Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Carson Beck led Georgia’s offense all season, sometimes not as well as was expected, but he won’t be on the field going forward after suffering an injury in the SEC Championship Game.

Beck sustained an injury to his throwing arm and will undergo an operation to repair the damage, paving the way for Gunner Stockton to take over the starting quarterback position.

He’ll face a Notre Dame defense playing some of the best football in the country, and spearheaded the team’s signature win over Indiana in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Bulldogs and Fighting Irish meet in the playoff?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Notre Dame compare in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl quarterfinal game.

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Georgia vs. Notre Dame score prediction

Despite the quarterback change, the models still side with the Bulldogs over the Fighting Irish, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Notre Dame by a projected score of 27 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 0.5 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Bulldogs a narrow 51 percent chance of victory against the Fighting Irish.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Sugar Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -106, Under -114).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -111 and for Notre Dame at +108 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame +1.5
• Georgia to win -111
• Bet over 45.5 points

Bettors are almost evenly split on how to interpret the game, with the Fighting Irish getting a slight edge over the Bulldogs, according to the spread consensus picks.

Notre Dame is getting 51 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to just a single point in a loss.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Georgia will cover the narrow point spread in a victory and advance to the semifinal round.

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Computer prediction

Other analytical football models are taking a different view of the matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is the narrow favorite on the index, coming out ahead of the Bulldogs in the majority 54.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

And while the Bulldogs aren’t projected to win the game, they still came out ahead of the Fighting Irish in the other 45.9 percent of sims, a sizable number.

When taking an average of the simulated outcomes, Notre Dame is projected to finish just 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Sugar Bowl Game

When: Thurs., Jan. 2
Where: New Orleans, La.

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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