Georgia vs. Ole Miss football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Georgia vs. Ole Miss in this Week 11 college football game.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss football prediction / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

An important SEC matchup gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces another critical road test, this time against No. 16 Ole Miss. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Ole Miss improved to 3-2 in SEC play and is on a two-game win streak, most recently a thrashing of Arkansas on the road that saw Jaxson Dart and Jordan Watkins both set school records, but there’s no margin for error going forward in a crowded playoff field.

Likewise for Georgia, which owns that loss against Alabama earlier this season, but passed another major road test, too, by beating then-No. 1 Texas to improve its playoff positioning.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss predictions

So far, it appears the computer models are siding with the Rebels over the Bulldogs in this one.

Ole Miss has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in the majority 53.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

Those models project Georgia will win the game in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels came out ahead in 10,780 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Bulldogs edged out Ole Miss in the other 9,220 predictions.

But those figures represent a mere win-loss calculation. What do they suggest about a possible margin of victory between these SEC rivals?

Expect a close one.

Ole Miss is projected to be just 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset.

That’s because Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -137 and for Ole Miss at +114 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a slight majority of bettors expect the Bulldogs to take care of the Rebels in this road game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Georgia is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will either win outright in the upset, or keep the game under a field goal margin in a loss.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss future predictions

Georgia ranks first among SEC teams with a 92.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Those models give the Bulldogs a win total prediction of 10.2 games this season.

Ole Miss is fifth in the conference with a 29 percent chance to make the playoff, and will win 9.3 games in 2024, according to the models.

Texas is second in the SEC (78.7%) to make the playoff, while Tennessee is third (73%) and Alabama comes into this weekend at fourth (55%), by the index’s projections.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Georgia vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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