Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Ole Miss in this Week 11 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A bombshell confrontation is set for today as No. 3 Georgia hits the road in a critical test against No. 16 Ole Miss. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia emerged as the No. 3 team in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season and is the presumptive SEC champion, but has little margin for error to stay in the top 12 with another loss.

Ole Miss has less room to maneuver, sitting outside the top 12 coming into this weekend, so needs to play its best football and hope for some outside help in order to move into playoff contention.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Bulldogs and Rebels meet in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Ole Miss compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction

So far, the models are taking the Rebels at home over the Bulldogs in this SEC clash.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 28 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.3 points.

The model gives the Rebels a narrow 56 percent chance of victory outright over the Bulldogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss odds, how to pick

Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -142 and for Ole Miss at +118 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss +2.5
• Rebels to win +118
• Bet under 54.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are taking the Bulldogs over the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia is getting 55 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will either lose the game by less than a field goal or to win outright in an upset at home.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss splits

Ole Miss ranks No. 6 nationally by averaging 23 points better than opponents so far this season, while Georgia has been 11.7 points better than the competition on average.

But these teams have played closer games over the last three weeks, as Ole Miss has been 13.7 points better than the opposition and Georgia has averaged 13 points better than its competition over that time horizon.

Georgia has fared 10.8 points better when playing on the road this season, while Ole Miss has dominated at home, averaging 24.3 points better than opponents in Oxford.

Ole Miss is strong on defense, ranking No. 3 in FBS by surrendering 0.192 points per play on average, while Georgia is 35th with 0.447 points per play.

Both teams are evenly matched on the other side, as Georgia is 15th by allowing 0.286 points per play this season, while Ole Miss is 19th with 0.520 points per play on offense.

Computer predictions

Other analytical models also suggest the Rebels will take down the Bulldogs in this SEC matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss comes out just ahead in the majority 53.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Ole Miss as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Ole Miss is projected to be 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss future projections

Georgia is first among SEC teams with a 83.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Bulldogs a win total projection of 10.2 games this season.

Ole Miss is fifth in the conference with a 61.1 percent shot to make the 12-team playoff.

And the index projects the Rebels will win 9.3 games this season.

How to watch Georgia vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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