Georgia vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Georgia vs. Tennessee in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Georgia vs. Tennessee football predictions / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

A critical SEC rivalry game with playoff implications kicks off on Saturday night as No. 7 Tennessee hits the road against reeling No. 12 Georgia. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Georgia slid to 5-2 in SEC play after a disappointing 28-10 loss at Ole Miss last week, leaving no margin for error when it comes to College Football Playoff consideration after falling to the No. 12 position in the rankings and emerging as the first team out in the latest bracket seeding.

Tennessee moved to first place in the SEC standings after knocking off Mississippi State but now there are some concerns around whether quarterback Nico Iamaleava will be at full capacity after sustaining an injury in that game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions

So far, it appears the computers are siding more with the Bulldogs than the Volunteers.

Georgia has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 61.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Bulldogs came out ahead in 12,340 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Volunteers edged out Georgia in the other 7,660 predictions.

But those figures represent a mere win-loss calculation. What do they suggest about a possible margin of victory in the game?

Expect a close one.

Georgia is projected to be 4.3 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Georgia is a 10.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -375 and for Tennessee at +290 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors are siding with the Volunteers to make things interesting against the Bulldogs on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 66 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin within the line in a loss.

The other 34 percent of wagers project Georgia will win the game by at least 11 points and cover the spread.

Georgia vs. Tennessee future projections

Georgia is second among SEC teams with a 75.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects Georgia will win 9.6 games this season.

Tennessee has a 74.3 percent chance to make the playoff, sitting third in the conference, and will win 10.3 games in ‘24, according to the index.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

How to watch Tennessee vs. Georgia

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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