Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Georgia meets Tennessee in this SEC rivalry clash with so much on the line, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Tennessee Prediction / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

Just about everything is on the line as SEC rivals No. 12 Georgia and No. 7 Tennessee square off on Saturday night between the hedges. Here’s what you should watch for as the Volunteers visit the Bulldogs, with our updated prediction for the game.

Everyone knew Georgia’s season would be defined in large part by its performance in three critical road games, and it has been: the Bulldogs went 1-2 in those matchups, and as a result sit outside the current College Football Playoff bracket and with no margin for error going forward.

Tennessee has more room to breathe, sitting atop the SEC standings with one loss on the year and firmly within the top dozen but playing some questionable offense during conference play, ranking 10th among SEC teams in scoring over that time.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs welcome the Volunteers in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Georgia and Tennessee square off in this Week 12 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Tennessee back Dylan Sampson is first in the SEC in rushing production with 1,129 yards on the year while scoring 20 touchdowns and is sixth in the league with 5.6 yards per carry on average, and on him much of the Vols’ offensive consistency currently depends.

Georgia is still more than capable against opposing backs this season, ranking No. 21 nationally in rush defense, allowing just under 111 yards per game while holding rushers to just 3.35 yards per carry on average, and has surrendered just 7 total touchdowns on the ground.

2. Going deep. It’s no secret that Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has struggled this season, throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10) against SEC opposition, although part of those issues stem from some shaky protection; he was sacked 5 times last week, and is brought down nearly twice every time out.

That could be an issue again against a Tennessee front seven that is one of the nation’s best coordinated and productive, ranking top 10 nationally with 71 tackles for loss while racking up nearly 8 stops behind the line per game, and allowing just 6 passing touchdowns all season.

3. QB watch. All eyes are on Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game. He traveled with the team, but his status -- and his impact should he play -- is an open question after leaving last week’s game against Mississippi State with an apparent head injury after taking a hard hit.

Iamaleava has been in concussion protocol over the past week and while head coach Josh Heupel is confident his quarterback will play, if he shouldn’t, the Vols offense would take a step backwards.

Iamaleava is good for over 65 percent of his throws and has nearly 1,900 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and just 4 picks in SEC play this season, and the Vols want their best man out there against a Georgia secondary that looks vulnerable.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Bulldogs over the Volunteers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia comes out ahead in the majority 61.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 38.1 percent of sims project Tennessee will pull off the upset and ruin Georgia’s season.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be 4.3 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 9.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -360 and for Tennessee at +280 to win outright.

Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

It’s all the rage to pick against Georgia as analysts and bettors are keen to overreact amid the team’s recent struggles, which can’t help but look like a serious decline after Kirby Smart’s program has so thoroughly dominated the sport the last few years.

And there are very real concerns for the Bulldogs. They’re not as strong on the interior of either line of scrimmage, the back seven has been exposed on occasion, their protection has been shoddy at times, and there is a relative lack of explosion from the skill players since the departure of Bowers and McConkey.

Enough isn’t said about that Vols’ defense: it ranks 5th nationally allowing just 12.6 points per game, and hasn’t allowed more than 19 points to a single opponent all season.

Tennessee’s expert defensive alignment will win more than half the battles against Georgia’s blockers and its 9th ranked rushing offense will keep the game close from start to finish.

But one aspect of Tennessee’s success rushing the ball sticks out: it’s come at the expense of some of the worst run defenses in the SEC this year; all but one of its opponents rank in the bottom half of the conference in that category.

That’s not a knock against Sampson’s year to remember or UT’s quality of schedule, but it’s worth mentioning considering the relative upgrade in competition its about to face between the hedges.

Georgia’s front line defenders have had their struggles, but the Vols’ quarterback situation could leave this offense functioning at only half its real capacity on the road against a team with a grudge.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 24-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Georgia vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Where: Athens, Ga.
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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