Georgia vs. Texas prediction in SEC Championship Game: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Georgia vs. Texas in the SEC Championship Game by a football model that simulates games.

Georgia vs. Texas prediction for 2024 SEC Championship Game / Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

Georgia and Texas reunite this weekend in the 2024 SEC Championship Game. Here’s your prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Texas earned a place in the SEC Championship Game after taking out rival Texas A&M and has a chance to avenge its only loss of the year, which came as the No. 1 team against the Bulldogs.

Georgia entered this week as the projected No. 7 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket and would host a first-round game on campus, but a win against the Longhorns should result in their earning a first-round bye, as it would for Texas if it beats the Bulldogs.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Texas predictions

As expected, the models are siding with the Longhorns over the Bulldogs, and by a decent margin.

Texas is the expected favorite in the game, coming out on top in a majority 61.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Longhorns came out ahead in 12,300 of the index’s calculations of the matchup, while the Bulldogs edged out Texas in the other 7,700 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Texas is projected to be 4.2 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Bulldogs.

That’s because Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -144 and for Georgia at +120 to win outright.

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What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Longhorns will take care of the Bulldogs and win the SEC championship, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Georgia will either win outright in an upset, or keep the game under a field goal margin in a loss.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Texas vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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