Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Texas in this Week 8 college football by an expert model that picks winners.

Georgia vs. Texas score prediction / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

What figures to be the game of the 2024 college football season kicks off on the Forty Acres as No. 1 Texas plays host to No. 5 Georgia in this marquee SEC clash. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Texas remains one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams after a dominant 31-point victory against Oklahoma and sits at 2-0 in SEC play behind the nation’s No. 7 ranked scoring offense.

Georgia is 3-1 in SEC games and hoping to avoid a costly second conference defeat after dropping a decision at Alabama a few weeks ago, ranking 9th in FBS in passing output behind the play of quarterback Carson Beck.

What do the analytics predict for this top-five SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Texas compare in this landmark Week 8 college football game.

Georgia vs. Texas score prediction

So far, the models are favoring the Longhorns in this game against the Bulldogs.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 32 to 25 and will win the game by an expected 7 point margin.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 67 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Georgia vs. Texas picks, odds

Texas is a 5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -210 and for Georgia at +175 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -5
• Longhorns to win -210
• Bet over 56.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Longhorns to take down the Bulldogs, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 53 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 47 percent of wagers predict that Georgia will either win the game in an upset, or keep the score under the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Longhorns against the Bulldogs in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game outright in a majority 76.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 23.8 percent of sims.

Texas is projected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 95.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Georgia a win total prediction of 9.1 games and ranks the team second in the SEC with a 68.8 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch Georgia vs. Texas

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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