Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Georgia and Texas face off in this Week 8 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Texas Prediction / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

A candidate for Game of the Year kicks off under the lights on the Forty Acres as No. 1 Texas looks to stay perfect against No. 5 Georgia in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia checks in at 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play and hoping to avoid what would be a costly second conference loss, as the College Football Playoff selection committee will keep a close eye on how this game develops for when they seed the 12 best teams later this year.

Texas is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams and coming off a dominant 31-point victory against Oklahoma that heralded the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers at the helm of the nation’s 7th-ranked scoring offense.

What can we expect when the Bulldogs and Longhorns meet in this new-look SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Georgia and Texas square off in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Georgia vs. Texas prediction: What to watch for

Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogs Prediction / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards while averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt, scoring 15 touchdowns and throwing 5 interceptions.

Beck had 898 combined yards in 98 passes against Alabama and Mississippi State, but along with that production came 5 interceptions against 6 touchdown throws.

Georgia averaged 33.5 points per game, good for 40th nationally and has scored 25 touchdowns going against a Texas defense that is No. 1 in FBS allowing just 6.3 points per game, has surrendered 3 total touchdowns, the fewest, and is the only team to allow under 40 total combined points (38).

Georgia ranks 3rd nationally with 17 passing plays of 30 or more yards, but Texas, which is No. 1 in FBS in total defense, is also tops in the country with 8 plays of 20-plus yards surrendered and 2 plays allowed of 30 or more yards.

In the red zone, Georgia is 25th nationally by scoring points on 24 of 26 opportunities, good for over 92 percent success, with 18 of those scores (69%) being touchdowns.

Texas is No. 2 in red zone defense, however, holding opponents to 4 of 7 chances and just 1 touchdown, the last three marks all being the fewest nationally.

His principle target is wide receiver Arian Smith, who has 412 receiving yards off 23 receptions for 17.9 yards per catch on average, and has scored 3 touchdowns.

Dillon Bell leads Georgia with 4 touchdown catches and Dominic Lovett is the Bulldogs’ second-most productive receiver with 302 yards and 2 touchdown grabs.

Trevor Etienne has 335 rushing yards with a 5.3 yard per carry average and has scored 4 of Georgia’s 10 rushing touchdowns.

Branson Robinson has 3 rushing touchdowns, but left last week’s game with a leg injury.

When Texas has the ball

Quinn Ewers is a 72.2 percent thrower with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, posting 8.2 yards per attempt while covering 890 yards in the air.

Texas is No. 7 in FBS in scoring offense, averaging 43.2 points per game and is 4th with 35 total touchdowns scored. Georgia is 20th in scoring defense, allowing 17.2 points per game and has surrendered 10 touchdowns, the sixth-fewest nationally.

Texas is No. 13 nationally in third down offense, converting 36 of 72 attempts for a 50 percent conversion rate, while Georgia is 32nd in FBS, allowing 25 of 76 chances (32.89 percent).

Isaiah Bond, a transfer from Alabama, is the Longhorns’ most productive receiver, catching 3 touchdowns off 21 grabs for 369 yards while averaging nearly 18 yards per reception.

Seven Texas receivers have at least 2 touchdown catches, with Matthew Golden (246 yards) and DeAndre Moore (152 yards) being the other players with 3 scoring receptions.

Quintrevion Wisner leads the Longhorns on the ground with 278 yards and 2 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Jaydon Blue has scored 2 times while Jerrick Gibson and quarterback Arch Manning each have 3 rushing touchdowns, and Texas averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a group.

Texas is 11th in FBS with 19 sacks recorded this season, and is averaging 3.17 sacks per game. Georgia is 29th in sacks allowed (7) and surrenders just 1.17 sacks each time out.

The Longhorns have allowed 6 total sacks this year, the 14th fewest in the country, and allow 1 sack on average per game, while the Bulldogs record 1.83 sacks per game and have 11 on the season, good for just 80th in FBS.

Texas has turned 29 (the 4th most) of its 33 (3rd most) red zone opportunities (88%) into points, including 26 touchdowns, good for 79 percent success getting in the end zone from scoring position.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the home team in this historic SEC clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Texas is favored to win the game outright in the majority 76.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 23.7 percent of sims.

And the model expects a double-digit victory for the Longhorns over the Bulldogs.

Texas is projected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Georgia prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas is a 4.5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -200 and for Georgia at +170 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors project the Longhorns will take down the Bulldogs, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game against Georgia and cover the spread.

The remaining 46 percent of wagers expect the Bulldogs will either beat the Longhorns outright in an upset, or keep the game within the 4.5 point line.

Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who wins?

Desperation is a hell of a drug, and while it may be premature to call Georgia desperate, a second conference loss would be damning when the selection committee comes time to seed the 12 best teams in the new College Football Playoff.

Those are the stakes as the Bulldogs land in Austin against a Longhorns team loaded with playmakers who can take the top of Georgia’s secondary, but who haven’t really been tested yet.

They beat a Michigan team that actually can’t throw the ball and dominated a bad Mississippi State, among other results that put the Texas defense into some needed perspective.

And while Carson Beck hasn’t had the run support he should’ve to make this easier, he still has the arm, the targets, and the quality pass protection to keep this game close all night.

Texas holds a few decisive advantages, including a superb offensive line that is protecting its quarterback very well and goes against a Bulldog pass rush that isn’t what it used to be.

So while Beck and the Georgia receivers will keep things tense from start to finish, relative declines in the front seven and the secondary that were exposed in the Alabama loss will come to light again against a potent Texas vertical game that has the tools to pull this out.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 31-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by expert model

How to watch Georgia vs. Texas

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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