Indiana vs. Washington football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical football model offers a new prediction for Indiana vs. Washington in this Week 9 college football game between Big Ten rivals.

Indiana vs. Washington football prediction / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

On a historic run this season, No. 13 Indiana is back home this weekend against Big Ten rival Washington on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks winners.

Indiana is 7-0 for the second time ever and playing some of college football’s best offense, but is undergoing a sudden quarterback change after starter Kurtis Rourke injured his thumb last week, and while we won’t see him against the Huskies, he should return at some point this season.

Washington fell to 2-2 in Big Ten play after an ugly 40-16 loss against Iowa, but is averaging a little more than 3 touchdowns per game in conference and allowing just 17 points per game on average, good for 16th nationally in scoring defense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Indiana vs. Washington predictions

As expected, the Hoosiers emerged as big favorites against the Huskies, despite the sudden change at quarterback.

Indiana is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 83.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Washington as the expected winner in the remaining 16.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Hoosiers came out ahead in 16,780 of the index’s simulations, while the Huskies edged out IU in the other 3,220 predictions.

The index projects that IU will be more than 2 touchdowns better than the Huskies.

Indiana is projected to be 14.8 points better than Washington on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be more than enough for the Hoosiers to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Washington, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Indiana at -250 and for Washington at +210 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a big majority of bettors expect the Hoosiers to dominate the Huskies at home.

Indiana is getting 76 percent of bets to beat Washington while covering the spread, winning by at least a touchdown.

The other 24 percent of wagers project the Huskies will either win the game outright in an upset or will keep the result under 7 points in a loss.

Indiana vs. Washington future predictions

Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 64.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a win total prediction of 10.9 games this season.

Washington will win 5.5 games this season, the fourth-lowest total in the Big Ten, according to the index’s calculations.

As such, the Huskies have a low 45.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible in 2024.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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