Indiana vs. Washington score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Indiana vs. Washington in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Washington Huskies Score Prediction / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

A notable Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 13 Indiana looks to preserve its perfect season against Washington in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Indiana moved to 7-0 for the second time in program history thanks to college football’s No. 1 scoring offense, but quarterback Kurtis Rourke won’t play in this game after injuring his thumb last week, paving the way for Tayven Jackson to command this potent attack.

Washington fell to 2-2 in Big Ten play after suffering an ugly 40-16 loss at Iowa last weekend and embarks on this first of three critical road tests against ranked conference opponents.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Hoosiers and Huskies meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Indiana and Washington compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Indiana vs. Washington score prediction

As expected, the models are giving an important edge to the Hoosiers over the Huskies this week.

SP+ predicts that Indiana will defeat Washington by a projected score of 32 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 10 points in the process.

The model gives the Hoosiers a strong 73 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Indiana vs. Washington picks, odds

Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Washington, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -210 and for Washington at +172 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Indiana -6.5
• Hoosiers to win -210
• Bet over 53.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors who are taking the Hoosiers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 74 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other 26 percent of wagers project that Washington will either win the game in an upset, or keep the game under a touchdown in a loss.

Indiana vs. Washington splits

Indiana has been 31.3 points better than its opponents on average when playing games at home so far this season.

And the Hoosiers have been 26.7 points better than the opposition over the last three games on average.

Washington has struggled on the road, averaging 10.7 points worse than opponents when away from home this season.

But the Huskies have averaged 5.7 points worse than the opposition overall in their last 3 games.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Hoosiers to take down the Huskies this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Indiana is projected to win the game outright in the majority 83.8 percent of the computer's most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Washington as the expected favorite in the remaining 16.2 percent of sims.

Indiana is projected to be 14.8 points better than Washington on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

Indiana vs. Washington future predictions

Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 62.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a win total prediction of 10.8 games this season.

Washington has a 46.8 percent chance to make a bowl game in 2024, according to the index’s calculations.

FPI gives the Huskies a win total projection of 5.5 games in ‘24.

How to watch Washington vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 9 a.m. PT
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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