Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones meet for the Cy-Hawk Trophy in college football's Week 2 action, with our updated game prediction.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction / Margaret Kispert/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

When it comes to college football rivalry games, few have been as close in recent years as the Cy-Hawk Trophy series between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Iowa State Cyclones, which will share the same field again as college football's Week 2 game action gets underway on Saturday.

The last six games in this series have been decided by 10 points or less in matchups defined by a combination of moribund offense and efficient, stingy defense. On the offensive front, we could see more from the Hawkeyes after a strong second-half showing in last week's season opener.

Iowa should play more suffocating defense with several key returning contributors on that side of the ball, and quarterback Cade McNamara posted 251 yards passing with 2 touchdowns while Kaleb Johnson ran for 2 more scores last Saturday in a preview of what Tim Lester has been up to re-working the team's offensive approach.

Iowa State won the Cy-Hawk Trophy game two seasons ago and came within three points of making it two straight in last year's meeting. Otherwise, the Hawkeyes have the Cyclones' number this decade, winning 8 out of the last 10 games and 7 of the last 8.

What can we expect from this week's game? Here's what you should watch for as Iowa and Iowa State renew their rivalry in college football's Week 2 matchup.

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction, preview

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction, preview / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

Iowa vs. Iowa State game odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Iowa: -3 (-110)
Iowa State +3 (-110)

Iowa to win: -152
Iowa State to win: +126

Over 35.5 points: -112
Under 35.5 points: -108

FPI picks: Iowa 71.8% to win

What to watch for

1. Iowa's offense back? Don't call it a comeback, but Tim Lester's unit did look improved in the opener, albeit against an overmatched team and only really in the second half of the game. Still, it was the best yardage total since 2019 and its 3 passing TDs were the most in 3 years.

Iowa State is a significantly greater challenge, however, although the Hawkeyes could get their backs and tight ends involved against a Cyclone defense that has inexperience in the second level and some notable injuries at linebacker, which should open passing lanes for Cade McNamara to exploit.

2. Target Iowa deep. Despite the Hawkeyes' overall defensive prowess, one area of relative weakness could be the performance of a cornerback unit without the NFL-bound Cooper DeJean going up against some agile Cyclone receiving targets.

Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins project to be Iowa State's best options for quarterback Rocco Becht, who broke freshman records at the school a year ago, passing for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns, and can find some angles if his receivers can get into single coverages.

3. Turnover margin. Key in any game, it's especially crucial for the Cyclones as they line up against a highly-disciplined Hawkeye defense and group of specialists that likely won't hand the ball over, and given Iowa State's improvement in this area: it was 117th in this category in 2022, but improved to 23rd nationally last season.

Iowa State hasn't won the turnover battle in the Cy-Hawk game with Matt Campbell as head coach and Iowa has scored a touchdown on defense in its last two wins, which pretty much canceled out Iowa State's offensive edge.

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction

It's cliché at this point to mention that Iowa has the defensive advantage, but the other big edge it has will be running the ball. Kaleb Johnson led a Hawkeye ground game that posted 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry in the opener.

We may not see those numbers against a Power Four defense, but there are still major concerns around the Cyclones' ability to stop the run against Iowa's stout protection unit and given their own injuries in center field.

Becht will test the Iowa secondary early and often with his relative receiver advantage, but the Hawkeyes' ability to pressure the quarterback on one side, and run the ball with authority on the other, should decide this.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Iowa wins 20-14
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert model

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