Iowa State vs. Arizona State: Big 12 Championship Game prediction

What to watch for as Arizona State vs. Iowa State meet in the Big 12 Championship Game, with a date in the College Football Playoff on the line, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Arizona State vs. Iowa State prediction for the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State and Iowa State meet in the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game with a place in the College Football Playoff on the line. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Iowa State started out 7-0 but lost consecutive games in a late-season turn that nearly derailed its postseason chances, but won its last three games, winning 10 times for the first time ever.

A win here guarantees the Cyclones a place in the College Football Playoff, but a loss is enough for the committee to drop the team out of the 12-team field altogether.

Likewise for the Sun Devils, who are in the same position, coming in as one of college football’s most improved teams, sitting in last place in their conference last season to go 10-2 in a campaign highlighted by back-to-back wins against ranked opponents.

Here’s what you should watch for as Arizona State and Iowa State meet in the Big 12 Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Arizona State vs. Iowa State prediction: Who wins?

How can Arizona State win the game

Running the ball hard and early to take some time off the clock, keep the Cyclones’ offense off the field, and compensate for a very ill-timed injury to an offensive star.

Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is out for the season, depriving the offense of its top target in terms of catches, yards, and touchdowns.

That means more work for lead back Cam Skattebo, one of the nation’s top rushers, good for almost 170 yards per game and 19 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

He had over 300 yards and 6 scores in its last two games, is working behind a big, well-coordinated line, and going against a Cyclones run-stop that is 112th nationally in total output and 121st among 134 FBS teams in run yards allowed before contact.

Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt has been careful with the ball, throwing just 5 interceptions against 21 touchdown passes, but he lines up against an Iowa State air defense that has 14 picks.

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How can Iowa State win the game

By locking down the Sun Devils on the ground, setting its top-tier pass defense against their remaining receiving targets, and moving the ball through the air.

That first task will be a tall order for a unit that has struggled, but the highlight of Iowa State’s defensive effort this season has been its superb production against opposing passers.

The unit is No. 3 nationally in overall pass defense, allowing just 52 percent completion from opponents, is 1 of 4 teams to surrender fewer than 2,000 total air yards, and just 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

Rocco Becht has thrown a TD pass in 16 straight games and is dealing to the only pair of 1,000-yard receivers in football, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who combined have 15 of the Cyclones’ 20 touchdowns in the air.

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Who is favored?

Arizona State is a 1.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated game lines from FanDuel Sportsbook in the Big 12 championship.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -118 and Iowa State at -102 to win outright.

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Big 12 Championship prediction: Who wins?

Arizona State’s pass defense has been vulnerable against competent passing attacks, and the Cyclones could do likewise with a battery of intermediate throws to a group of solid receivers.

The absence of Tyson spreading out Iowa State’s excellent air defense is a concerning development for the Sun Devils, but the rest of this offense is equipped to handle it.

Leavitt might not be a game-changer throwing the ball, but he and his other targets still pose enough of a credible threat to keep the Cyclones’ defense from over-committing to the run.

Skattebo and the Sun Devils’ ground game should still be the difference-maker here, steadily churning out 3 and 4 yard gains that expose Iowa State’s sketchy run-stop.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Arizona State wins 27-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Big 12 Championship score prediction by football model

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How to watch Arizona State vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 11 a.m. CT | 10 a.m. MT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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