Iowa State vs. Arizona State score prediction for Big 12 Championship from expert football model

What the analytics predict for Iowa State vs. Arizona State in the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State score prediction for the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game / Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

The selection committee will keep a close eye on what happens between Iowa State and Arizona State in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game, with the winner guaranteed a place in the College Football Playoff. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Arizona State is seeking its first-ever conference championship in any league and to make a big first impression in its inaugural season in the Big 12, on a five-game win streak, including two victories against ranked conference foes that put the team directly in contention.

Iowa State has won 10 games in a single season for the first time in program history and will make its second appearance for the Big 12 championship hoping to pull off an upset for the ages.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Cyclones and Sun Devils square off this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Arizona State compare in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday.

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Iowa State vs. Arizona State score prediction

This could get interesting.

There’s something of a surprise from the models, which project a notable upset in picking the Cyclones to take down the Sun Devils for the Big 12 championship.

SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Arizona State by a projected score of 27 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.7 points.

The model gives the Cyclones a 59 percent chance of outright victory against the Sun Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-35-1 (53%) last weekend.

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Big 12 Championship odds, how to pick the game

Arizona State is a 1.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Big 12 championship.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -115 and for Iowa State at -104 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Iowa State +1.5
• Cyclones to win -104
• Bet over 49.5 points

Most bettors still have confidence in the Sun Devils to get it done against the Cyclones, according to the spread consensus picks for the Big 12 Championship Game.

A big majority of bets -- 67 percent of them -- expect Arizona State will win the game and cover the very narrow point spread.

But the other 33 percent of wagers project Iowa State will either win outright in the upset, or keep the game to 2 or fewer points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Other football analytical models also project a big upset by the Cyclones over the Sun Devils.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Iowa State is a narrow favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the slight majority 54.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arizona State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Iowa State is projected to be just 1.8 points better than Arizona State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Big 12 Championship Game prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

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What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch the Big 12 Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 11 a.m. CT | 10 a.m. MT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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