Kansas State vs. BYU score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Kansas State vs. BYU in this Week 4 college football game.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Prediction / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

A pair of undefeated Big 12 rivals square off in one of the nation's most raucous stadiums, each looking to avoid an 0-1 start in conference play, as No. 13 Kansas State travels to BYU in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday night.

Kansas State is coming off a statement 31-7 win over Arizona, but that wasn't a conference game due to a scheduling technicality, but it was still a strong performance for the Wildcats in shutting down one of the nation's most productive passing attacks.

BYU owns a road win against a Power Conference team after defeating SMU two weeks ago and comes into the Big 12 opener averaging just 77th nationally in rushing production, but is yet to surrender over 20 points in a game so far this season.

What do the analytics project for the matchup this weekend?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Kansas State and BYU compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Kansas State vs. BYU score prediction

The simulations currently favor the road team in this game, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat BYU by a projected score of 32 to 23 and to win the game by an expected 9.7 points.

The model gives the Wildcats a 73 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Kansas State is a 6.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -220 and for BYU at +180 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Kansas State -6.5
• Wildcats to win -220
• Bet over 47.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also project the Wildcats to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State is projected to win the game in 70 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves BYU as the expected winner in the remaining 30 percent of sims.

Kansas State will be 7.9 points better than BYU on the same field, according to the index, still enough for the Wildcats to cover the spread.

The index forecasts that K-State will win 9.8 games this season and make the College Football Playoff with 33.8 percent likelihood, second among Big 12 teams.

BYU will win 6.7 games and has a 1.9 percent shot at the playoff, according to the FPI metrics.

Kansas State vs. BYU schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 8:30 p.m. CT | 7:30 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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