Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Kansas State vs. Colorado by the football model that picks winners.

Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Big 12 football returns to action this weekend as No. 18 Kansas State hits the road against Colorado in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the football model that picks winners.

Kansas State is 4-1 overall and comes off a statement win against then-ranked Oklahoma State two weeks ago and sits at No. 7 in FBS in rushing output heading into this game.

Colorado is 2-0 in Big 12 play and 4-1 overall and on a 3-game win streak thanks in large part to the nation’s 9th-best passing attack led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who is completing more than 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Kansas State vs. Colorado predictions

The models project a very close game this week, with the road team getting a slight edge.

Kansas State is projected to win the game in 52.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or 10,440 of its 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 47.8 percent of sims.

Kansas State is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Colorado on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -175 and for Colorado at +150 to win outright.

What the bettors are saying

Colorado is getting more faith from bettors in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A slight majority of bets -- 55 percent -- project the Buffaloes will either beat the Wildcats in an upset or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Kansas State will beat Colorado and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score forecasts a slight victory for the Wildcats against the Buffaloes.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Kansas State will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 30 to 27.

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 16.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and will win 8.5 games, according to the FPI metrics.

That model gives Colorado a win total projection of 8.1 games and a 12.3 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

How to watch Kansas State vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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