Kansas State vs. Colorado score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Kansas State vs. Colorado in this Week 7 college football game.

Kansas State vs. Colorado score prediction / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 conference matchup kicks off from Boulder under the lights this weekend as No. 18 Kansas State hits the road against Coach Prime and Colorado in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

Kansas State is coming off an idle weekend in a good place, moving to 1-1 in conference play after a statement victory over then-ranked Oklahoma State, and comes into this game needing to avoid falling under .500 in league games against an opponent on a streak of its own.

Colorado moved to 4-1 and a solid 2-0 start in Big 12 play after a three-game win streak behind a customarily productive vertical game that ranks 9th in FBS, but is still under-performing on the ground, where it places 127th out of 134 FBS schools with 81 yards per game.

What do the analytics suggest about this weekend’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Kansas State and Colorado compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Kansas State vs. Colorado score prediction

So far, the models are giving a slight edge to the road team in this game.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 34 to 25 and will win the game by an expected 8.7 point margin.

The model gives the Wildcats an impressive 71 percent chance of outright victory over the Buffaloes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Kansas State vs. Colorado odds, picks

Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -165 and for Colorado at +140 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Kansas State -3.5
• Wildcats to win -165
• Bet over 55.5 points

A slight majority of bettors have more faith in the Buffaloes in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 57 percent of them -- expect that Colorado will either win in an upset or at least keep the game within the line.

The other 43 percent of wagers forecast that Kansas State will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Wildcats to take down the Buffaloes this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State is projected to win outright in a slight majority 52.3 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 47.7 percent of sims.

But it projects a very close game, as Kansas State is expected to be 0.9 points better than Colorado on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 15.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Colorado a win total projection of 8.1 games and the team is fourth in the conference with a 12.4 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

How to watch Kansas State vs. Colorado

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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