Kansas vs. Kansas State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Kansas vs. Kansas State by the football model that picks winners.

Kansas vs. Kansas State football predictions / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The Governor’s Cup dates back to 1902 and this year finds No. 16 Kansas State looking to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive against rival Kansas on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by an expert football that picks winners.

Kansas started 0-3 in conference play, albeit in close games decided by an average of 6.3 points, but rebounded with its first league win after dominating Houston last weekend.

Kansas State has won 3 straight Big 12 games since losing its first conference date, against BYU, and has scored over 40 points in two of those matchups.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Kansas vs. Kansas State predictions

As expected, the models are strongly siding with the Wildcats over the Jayhawks.

Kansas State is projected to win the game outright in the majority 75.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kansas as the expected winner in the remaining 24.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Wildcats came out ahead in 15,040 of the computer’s projections, while the Jayhawks emerged as the winner in the other 4,960 predictions.

The index expects a double-digit win for the Wildcats on the scoreboard in this matchup.

Kansas State is projected to be 10.1 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Wildcats to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Kansas State is a 10.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by at least 11 points to cover.

What the bettors say

Most bettors project the Wildcats will exceed that threshold against the Jayhawks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Kansas State is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread against KU.

The other 35 percent of wagers predict that Kansas will either beat its rivals in an upset, or will keep the game under the 10.5 point line.

Kansas vs. Kansas State future predictions

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 38.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Kansas a win total prediction of 4 games and places it last in the conference with a 0 percent shot at the playoff, and second-worst with a 9.1 percent chance to play in a bowl game.

Kansas State is projected to win 9.9 games this season, and has the conference’s best odds (13.5%) to win out the rest of the way.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks