Kansas vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Kansas vs. Kansas State in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats Score Prediction / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

One of college football’s best in-state rivalries kicks off this weekend as No. 16 Kansas State returns home against Kansas on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Kansas State moved to 3-1 in Big 12 play this season and is on a three-game win streak, scoring a combined 118 points, and moving into third place in a competitive conference title race.

Kansas moved to 1-3 in conference games after dominating Houston last week, and despite its poor record to date, has lost its league matchups by a combined 19 points.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Jayhawks and Wildcats meet in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Kansas and Kansas State compare in this Week 9 college football rivalry game.

Kansas vs. Kansas State score prediction

As expected, the models are giving a notable edge to the Wildcats over the Jayhawks this week.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Kansas by a projected score of 35 to 23 and to win the game by an expected margin of 11.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Wildcats a 77 percent chance of victory against the Jayhawks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Kansas vs. Kansas State picks, odds

Kansas State is a 9.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -330 and for Kansas at +260 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Kansas State -9.5
• Wildcats to win -330
• Bet over 55.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors who are siding with the Wildcats, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Kansas State is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Kansas will either win in an upset or keep the score under 10 points in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Wildcats to take down the Jayhawks this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State is projected to win the game outright in the majority 75.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kansas as the expected winner in the remaining 24.8 percent of sims.

Kansas State is projected to be 10 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Kansas State vs. Kansas splits

Kansas State has been 23 points better than its opponents when playing at home this season.

And over the last three games, the Wildcats have proved 17.3 points better than opponents.

Kansas is 4.7 points worse than the teams it plays when going on the road in 2024.

But the Jayhawks are 4.3 points better than opponents over its last three games, an average that was boosted by last week’s dominant victory.

Kansas State vs. Kansas future predictions

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 36.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Wildcats a win total prediction of 9.9 games this season.

Kansas is second-worst in the Big 12 with a 9.1 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game in 2024.

And it has a win total projection of 4 games this year.

How to watch Kansas vs. Kansas State

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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