Kansas vs. West Virginia score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Kansas vs. West Virginia in this Week 4 college football game.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction / Carter Skaggs/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

A pair of Big 12 rivals meet this weekend, both looking to get back to .500 on the year, as Kansas travels to West Virginia in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Kansas has dropped two straight games, on the road to Illinois and then at home against Group of Five challenger UNLV and ranks just 115th nationally in passing production and 81st in scoring.

West Virginia is 103rd in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing over four touchdowns per game and is coming off a close-fought matchup against rival Pittsburgh on the road.

What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Kansas and West Virginia compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Kansas vs. West Virginia score prediction

The simulations currently favor the road team in this Big 12 clash.

SP+ predicts that Kansas will defeat West Virginia by a projected score of 32 to 29 and to win the game by an expected 2.9 points.

The model forecasts the Jayhawks have a narrow 57 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

West Virginia is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for West Virginia at -135 and for Kansas at +115 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Kansas +2.5
• KU to win +115
• Bet over 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models disagree on the outcome of this week's game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index forecasts that West Virginia will win the game in 50.6 percent of its updated simulations.

And that Kansas will win the game in the remaining 49.4 percent of sims.

The models forecast that West Virginia will be 2.6 points better than Kansas on the same field.

Kansas will win 5.8 games this season and is 11th among Big 12 teams with a 1.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the index.

FPI projects West Virginia will win 4.9 games and ranks third-worst in the Big 12 with a 0.8 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.

Kansas vs. West Virginia schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ESPN2 network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks