Louisville vs. SMU score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Louisville vs. SMU in this Week 6 college football game.

Louisville vs. SMU football score prediction / Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

ACC football returns to the field this weekend as No. 22 Louisville welcomes SMU in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday, so let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game.

Louisville is coming off its first loss of the season, falling to 3-1 on the year after dropping a 7-point decision at Notre Dame, but is still averaging 40 points and almost 300 yards passing per game.

SMU is 1-0 in ACC play, having outscored its last two opponents by a combined 108 to 58 margin, including a 42-16 win over Florida State in which Kevin Jennings had a career-high 254 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.

What do the experts think of this week’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how SMU and Louisville compare in this game, along with an updated prediction.

Louisville vs. SMU score prediction

So far, the simulations are in favor of the Cardinals holding on at home against the Mustangs.

SP+ predicts that Louisville will defeat SMU by a projected score of 30 to 24 and to win the game by an expected 5.7 points.

The model gives the Cardinals a 64 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

SMU vs. Louisville odds

Louisville is a 7 point favorite against SMU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Louisville at -250 and for SMU at +210 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• SMU +7
• Louisville to win -250
• Bet under 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Cardinals to take down the Mustangs this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Louisville comes out as the projected winner of the game in the majority 67.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves SMU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.7 percent of sims.

Louisville is projected to be 6.6 points better than SMU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast. 

Louisville is third among ACC teams with a 21.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives SMU a win total projection of 8.9 games and a 13.3 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch SMU vs. Louisville

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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