LSU vs. USC score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for USC vs. LSU in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score prediction for LSU vs. USC in this Week 1 college football game. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

While most of college football's Week 1 action took place on its traditional Saturday, this coming Sunday brings us one notable primetime game from Las Vegas as LSU and USC square off in a battle of ranked teams in what is now an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup after conference realignment.

Both these teams resemble each other in important ways. Each is hoping to play much better defense after their respective units were among the worst in college football a year ago.

And that they made the right replacement at the quarterback position as both USC and LSU have to name successors to former Heisman Trophy winners.

What do the analytics suggest about the game? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a better look at how USC and LSU match up in this critical season opener from Sin City.

LSU vs. USC prediction

The simulations favor the SEC team in this matchup to open the 2024 season.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat USC by a projected score of 41 to 31 and will win the game by an expected 9.2 points.

The model gives LSU a projected 72 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

USC vs. LSU game odds

LSU is a 4.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 64.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for LSU at -182 and for USC at +150.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• LSU -4.5
• LSU to win -182
• Over 64.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models are also projecting LSU will win the Week 1 game.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The model projects LSU to win the game in 54.7 percent of its simulations, while USC came out the likely winner in the remaining 45.3 percent of sims.

The index suggests that LSU is 3.5 points better than USC on any field entering the Week 1 game, not enough to cover the current point spread.

USC vs. LSU game time, schedule

When: Sun., Sept. 1
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT, 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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