LSU Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

What to expect as the LSU Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in this Week 3 college football game with our updated prediction.

LSU Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A notable SEC showdown takes place this weekend with College GameDay on hand to watch as No. 16 LSU goes on the road hoping to avoid falling below .500 against undefeated South Carolina in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday.

LSU dropped the season opener against USC and played surprisingly close against Nicholls last week before pulling away behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s six touchdown passes, and it’s on his arm that the Tigers’ hopes of competing for the SEC championship will depend.

South Carolina is perfect through two games and coming off a high after trouncing Kentucky in the SEC opener on the road last week, holding the Wildcats to a 31-6 decision and keeping UK’s passing attack to just 44 total yards behind a strong defensive performance.

It’ll be that Carolina pass rush against LSU’s superb pass protection that will largely determine how things shake out in Columbia with plenty on the line for both teams.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as LSU and South Carolina square off in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

LSU vs. South Carolina prediction, preview

1. Battle at the line ... South Carolina is playing some superb defense up front so far behind edge rushers Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard, a duo that has combined for 6 sacks and 7 tackles for loss so far, and as a team, the Gamecocks lead the SEC with 10 sacks.

But that pass rush will be challenged by an LSU line that features two NFL-caliber tackles on the edges that haven’t surrendered a sack yet through two games.

2. Establish the run ... LSU is the only SEC team yet to rush for a touchdown this season and is still working through its backfield rotation after losing lead back John Emery to an injury. 

By comparison, the Gamecocks are posting just 2.9 yards per carry, the SEC’s worst mark so far, despite the stabilizing presence of Arkansas transfer back Raheim Sanders, who is tops in the conference in attempts. Altogether, Carolina is last in the SEC with 4.2 yards per play.

South Carolina has struggled with its interior blocking, allowing 22 plays of negative yardage, a key component in the run game’s struggles, but LSU just lost inside tackle Jacobian Guillory for the season, which could give the Gamecocks a slight advantage to exploit.

3. Cocks’ QB ... LaNorris Sellers is the new guy under center for Carolina, and so far he’s been able to generally manage the offense, despite some mistakes and uneven blocking.

Sellers threw 2 touchdown passes against Kentucky and, although he wasn’t able to generate much as a runner last week, the quarterback does have a touch of mobility that can extend plays or open up some decent gains of his own that will force LSU to keep an extra man on him.

LSU vs. South Carolina game odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LSU: -6.5 (-115)
South Carolina: +6.5 (-105)

LSU to win: -255
South Carolina to win +205

Over 48.5 points: -105
Under 48.5 points: -115

LSU vs. South Carolina prediction

The relative absence of a consistent ground attack will once again force LSU to rely on Nussmeier to spread things out and keep the chains moving, something he’s done well thus far.

And despite some questions up front, the Tigers do still have the personnel to credibly prevent the Gamecocks from developing a ton of momentum running the ball.

But if Carolina gets some early stops on defense and frustrates LSU’s early offensive momentum, and if Sellers and Sanders can respond by going on extended drives of their own, this could be close.

Our bet is that the Gamecocks are able to execute that very game plan early, but that LSU’s skill targets will get the better of Carolina’s secondary and make the plays late to avoid the upset.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 26-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More .... LSU vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert football model

LSU vs. South Carolina schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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